Got into a big pot in a deep 1-3 game tonight where I had top set, AA on A 10 9 flop. I knew the guy was on a big draw when he snap called my flop raise. turn brings J. It checks to me and I bet the pot. (I wish I would have sized this different in retrospect but that is not point of this post)

So when the guy check raises me all in on the turn for $1000.00, I need 22.7% equity for a break even call. I dont have it because this guy doesnt make this move without KQ or 87.

In retrospect, how should we think about a spot like this?

(1) My expected value of calling here is -40$ so I am going to fold and save that $40. That is almost an hourly rate for me.

or

(2) Nothing in poker can be calculated to 100% so if I think I am 100% behind, I am probably behind something more like 95-98% of the time. The one time I am wrong and this guy has 1010 or something will cost me $1700.00 so I better just throw the 500 in and hope to hit one of 10 outs.

I mean I couldn't even convince myself this guy might have 1010 or 99 once in a blue moon and Im usually really good at finding some reason to call and lose when its this close. I didnt have a history with this guy though so I was basing this on his appearance and play over last 2 hours. Nevertheless, i was pretty sure about it.

Or maybe it doenst matter if we call or fold when its this close and we just decide based on other factors like how it will effect the game dynamics.

Id appreciate any thoughts on this. Thx

First, you only have 9 outs if your read is correct as the Jh gives V a straight flush,. Using the 95% number you quoted for correctly thinking you are behind (V has a straight and a flush draw) and a 5% chance of a lower set for V, your EV (assuming I interpreted your dollar amounts correctly) is

0.95 *( 9/44*1700-35/44*500) + .05*(43/44 *1700-1/44*500) = 35

Given the small positive EV relative to the win and loss amounts, I would consider the call a toss-up and attempt to incorporate other factors as you indicated.

If the EV is that close I would often call for the fact your read cannot be 100% right. People do spew / overplay strong hands and they don't have to do it too often to make the call BE or even +EV.


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I would definitely factor in a possible error margin on your reads . Since the only possible error favours you (because you have assigned him the tightest possible range and there are no more realistic combos that beat you) and we are talking like 2% of the total pot loss in worst case scenario then I would just call .
Also , psychologically , I think it is much better to call off and shrug if he has it and possibly double up anyway . Folding and then wondering if you made the right decision for the rest of the night (or even worse being shown a TT or some other hand) would put me off my game a lot more
Another factor is that from a game theory perspective it is obviously highly exploitable to fold top set here and it's not unthinkable for your opponent or other opponents to witness this and possibly use it against you in future hands