How often does a check raise need to work (math)? - Poker Theory

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How often does a check raise need to work (math)?

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01-30-2016 , 03:52 PM

donkANALysis

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 137

I'm just making sure I'm doing this right slash seeing if there's an easier way to do this. This post is both about the math of the play (top) and to see if there's any theory behind sizing (bottom).

If someone c-bets (BTN vs BB) $5>$10 on the flop and we check raise to $15, how often does our check raise need to work to be immediately profitable? We are risking $15 to win $15 so isn't it 1:1 odds meaning it has to work at least 1/2=50% of the time to show a profit?

Also, in theory what are the best sizes to check raise in this spot? Should I be leaning toward $17-$20 instead of 3x his bet size?

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01-30-2016 , 05:17 PM

IslandPoker

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 6

I'm not sure I completely understand your question. Is your goal of your check raise to induce a call from a weaker hand? Or would you prefer they fold?

It seems like you are trying to measure ROI on a check raise the same way you would a cont-bet. Continuation Bets are only to induce folds though. A check raise, can be used to induce a fold, but I think it is typically used to trap.

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01-30-2016 , 05:19 PM

Mateo94

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,262

Quote:

Originally Posted by donkANALysis

With any two cards regardless of equity it's amount you are risking divided by what's in the pot + what you are risking.

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01-31-2016 , 03:51 AM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,103

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mateo94

With any two cards regardless of equity it's amount you are risking divided by what's in the pot + what you are risking.

It's important to clarify that this assumes 0 equity or it's on the river basically. (talking about bluffs)

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01-31-2016 , 03:53 AM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,103

Quote:

Originally Posted by donkANALysis

In theory the "best" size of your raise is dependent on a lot of factors that are not given here.

In your example, the pot is $10 on the flop and villain bets out $5. We then raise to $15. We are therefore risking $15 to win a pot of ($10 + $5 + $15) = 15/30 = 0.5

You need him to fold half the time to become immediately profitable assuming you have 0 equity.

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02-01-2016 , 11:41 PM

wolli2013

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,056

actually i like to think about the other way around

instead of thinking how often does it need to work as a bluff, i would think about how often can i bluff being protected by my value hands

also this opens up for higher sizings, since we can bluff more often with higher sizings

if you create some virtual air/nuts scenarios you can have the check/raise "working" 0% of the times and still print money (something ridic like 1 bluff for 10 valueraises)

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02-02-2016 , 09:57 AM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,103

^ you need to think about both

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