How often do you hit a boat? - Poker Theory - General Poker Theory Forum

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How often do you hit a boat?

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02-09-2017 , 10:46 AM

MikeStarr

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Off the top of your head, how often would you estimate you hit a full house playing NL? My poker room has a full house promotion and Im trying to figure out what its worth to me hourly to play at that time as opposed to somewhere else or different (possibly more profitable) hours and skip the promo. Promo is $80 for the first 50 full houses of the day.

I'll throw out a number of once per 15 hrs of play. Just a guess.

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02-09-2017 , 11:02 AM

psujohn

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I'd guess a little more often though that could just be being biased to remember the times you hit a boat. I'd probably set the over/under and like 11 hours.

I did hit 3 in one 3 hour session once so extrapolating from that it'd be every hour.

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02-09-2017 , 12:20 PM

madlex

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

I'll throw out a number of once per 15 hrs of play. Just a guess.

Do you think that number might depend on your VPIP and your willingness to fold pocket pairs or bottom pair on the flop?

Do you think it matters if none, one or both of your hole cards have to play?

Do you have to dodge hitting quads if you boat up on flop or turn?

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02-09-2017 , 12:24 PM

Chippa58

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1/while

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02-09-2017 , 02:37 PM

answer20

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How often do you Flop 2-pair? (Hint .. about 2% of the time) ... Then you are 1 in 6 to boat.

How often do you hit a set? (Hint ... Pocket pair 'every' 17 hands (2 orbits), then a set 'every' 8 tries) ... Then you are 1 in 3 to boat.

How often do you hit trips? Then you are somewhere between those 2 numbers.

So, hopefully, you can see that you are more likely to see a boat on the open sea than in a poker room. Is it your day?

Lots of these stats can look better than they really are due to the fact that we do fold out trash that will connect ... thus counting towards the probability but not towards our pocket cash. GL

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02-09-2017 , 02:49 PM

Ace upmy Slv

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I would think this is not based on how many hours it will take, but more about how many hands it takes to see a boat. Then you would need to figure out how many hands you are being dealt per down and go from there. This could vary by quite a bit based on what stakes you are playing, what dealer(s) are dealing to you, the speed of the players you are playing with, etc.

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02-09-2017 , 05:48 PM

MikeStarr

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I left out a few details I guess. You have to use both cards and it actually full house or better. Promo is also $60, not $80. I did a little more detailed guesstimates myself and came up with about once every 14 hours. So maybe its worth in the neighborhood of $4/hr

Of course there are lots of factors like how often you play pocket pairs, your VPIP, ect.

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02-09-2017 , 05:51 PM

Suit

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This would be answered with an exactly correct number in the probability forum relatively quick.

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02-09-2017 , 05:55 PM

AngusThermopyle

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Quote:

Originally Posted by MikeStarr

Plus, if your FH is number 51, you get nothing.
So, the number of qualified tables running is important, unless you are going to leave as soon as number 50 is won.

Re your once every 14 hours: So, it is your experience that sitting in a 10 handed game, someone at the table makes a qualifying FH only once every 90 minutes?

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02-09-2017 , 06:03 PM

#10

madlex

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Originally Posted by Suit

This would be answered with an exactly correct number in the probability forum relatively quick.

No it wouldn't. We know how often two random cards make a full house or better by the river and therefore how many hands that see the river it will take on average, but that doesn't help us at all if we want to know how many hours we have to wait for one such hand with our very specific playing style.

A loose-passive calling station might make a full house 5 or more times as often per hour as a nit does.

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02-09-2017 , 06:07 PM

#11

MikeStarr

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Originally Posted by AngusThermopyle

Plus, if your FH is number 51, you get nothing.
So, the number of qualified tables running is important, unless you are going to leave as soon as number 50 is won.

Re your once every 14 hours: So, it is your experience that sitting in a 10 handed game, someone at the table makes a qualifying FH only once every 90 minutes?

Hard to tell since you dont see people's hands that often if they dont showdown or hit a high hand. I think that sounds close though.

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02-10-2017 , 12:23 PM

#12

Ace upmy Slv

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Not sure where everyone is getting these numbers from, but in a full ring game I see 2-3 FH's (from all players of course) every hour or so, with 1-2 of them using both cards. Just my experience.

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02-10-2017 , 12:39 PM

#13

answer20

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Ace upmy Slv

Not sure where everyone is getting these numbers from, but in a full ring game I see 2-3 FH's (from all players of course) every hour or so, with 1-2 of them using both cards. Just my experience.

1) OP is only interested in 'his' Full Houses, not the table in general.

2) If you are playing online you already know that the decks are stacked to create action ... right? (never proven)

We all notice trends during each session ... "4s are hot" ... and tend to embellish them by human nature. Whenever I'm car shopping it's amazing at how many more of those cars I see on the road now that I'm focused on them than I did before.

The battle between the math and the 'real' world will never end in poker. Everything has streaks. I had AA or KK 11 times in a very slow 5 hour 2/5 game last week .. maybe 150-180 hands against a 1 in 110 chance to get either. GL

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02-10-2017 , 03:29 PM

#14

statmanhal

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IF you play every hand to the end, the probability of a full house, quads or straight flush is about 1.3%. But, that’s a big if, so I would think the probability is well under 1%, maybe in the 0.25% - 0.40% range. The guesses of 11 to 14 hours are consistent with this range.

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