Originally Posted by Diet Ketchup
It's all luck and I'll explain why.
People say ''you have to play through the variance to even it out'' (even out your run bad)
So I saw a graph on here the once which was a sample size of 3.x million hands and the guy was running massively below ev.
So, if we're to take his word for it which I do because he's a great player than he was running insanely bad. Then it goes to show that not everyone who plays poker or ever plays it would ever be able to play 3million hands in there lifetime of playing. So therefore it is plausible to run bad for your entire time whilest playing poker. Because unless your a 12 hour a day 24 hour tabling robot you're never gonna be able to play these millions of hands to break through variance.
Live poker is slow, you don't see as many hands as you do online and you can't possibly multi table live donkaments. So these people who ran like god or do run like god in there careers may very well be able to read the game great, make great calls and correct decisions. But if you hit them with a 2 outer for there first 3 million hands 8/10 times they'd be un-known busto's, and it's simply the same for the people who run bad. If they had avoided the 59% of there 2/1 outers/ sick insane runner runners than they'd be successful.
I really think the game is flawed the randomness and luck element is huge. And people saying playing sample sizes and huge amounts doesn't mean anything. Because like I said if you can run bad over 3 million hands at a certain point, then what about these people who are only ever going to play 3 mill hands in there entire playing career? It's possible for them too start out on a complete run bad which could last 'forever'
Flame away, but no one ever thinks about it like this. But I'm pretty such I've touched upon something here.
Anything is possible statistically speaking in terms of ev in poker. It is possible that your entire life you will be a losing player but based on your play you should be up a significant amount. You could also be a player who goes on a winning streak for ten years but should be broke too many times to count. There are people who win the lottery multiple times and others who get struck by lightning multiple times. I guess you could say that both groups are lucky. Just one is considered bad luck and the other good.