Originally Posted by cltrich
Short term: Luck is extremely high
Long term: Luck is nearly 0
this is very close.
I wrote an article about this for vegaspokerpro.com, i think called luck vs skill in poker that OP may find useful.
I think i did something on the subject for top poker as well, wwwtoppoker.org
on vegaspokerpro.com i write as Donovan Doust and covered this subject pretty thoroughly in just one or two paragraphs.
I use to write as "Dead Money" for top poker. If I wrote on this subject for top poker it would be alot more comprehensive as they usually wanted a minimum word count, and frankly, they paid a lot better. toppoker.org, poker strat, Dead Money
But the short answer is; luck is the dominant force in the short term but its boiled out of the equation ENTIRELY in the long run.
% Luck over a long enough period is exactly 0%.
Asking what percent of poker is luck and what part is skill is like asking the marital status of the number 7. Its an impossible question. It doesn't have an answer because the question is not logical.
Asking how much of poker is luck and how much is skill is like asking what percent of a book is story and what percent is ink. Its just not answerable.
In order to guage an amount of skill and an amount of luck you need to, as a minimum, include a reference to time. Even then you are restricted, logically, to ask more specific questions like what are the odds of beating a game where my edge is x%. Or what are my chances of going broke with x buy ins, x edge, over x amount of time.
How much is luck how much is skill? You have to rephrase this into something that makes sense.
Just read my article at vegaspokerpro.com and if you still don't get it go to toppoker.org. I think i give pretty good answers and explanations; it's been like 7 years since I wrote for either publication so I don't remember exactly but i imagine they are OK. A lot of poker has changed in the last 5 years, but the math is the same.