Hey guys

I have a question about exploiting players who overfold to 3bets.

This is a hypothetical spot:

We are playing a MTT and both players have 50 bbs.

Hijack open with his standard raise of 2.5 bbs with 12% of his hands. He standard folds 9% of his hands vs a 3x(7.5 bbs) 3bet from the button. Vs his 3% continuing range I only 3bet KK+ for value. What should be my value:bluff ratio here? Basically, how far can I go with 3bet bluffing him?

For the sake of the theory the blinds never interfere. And the OR only folds or calls.

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I tried to solve it with math. I feel I am close but I can't solve it. Maybe I am using the wrong formula?

BB=1, SB=0,5, Antes=0,9, OR=2,5 3bet=7,5 Risk to call 3bet V=5
Minimum defence: 5/(1+0,5+0,9+2,5+7,5+5)=28,7%
V actually defence: 25%

BB+SB+Antes+OR=Pot before 3bet=4,9bbs
Pot odds: 4,9:7,5
1/(4,9:7,5)=39,5%

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What am I doing wrong? What steps should I take more?

Solid op I think, but this part:

Is a rather large mistake.

Because of the blinds, you should be somewhat value heavy here I think. Ignoring the "always calls or folds" read on the HJ, I'd 3 bet this range on the button vs unknown blinds with normal stacks at your preferred sizing of 3x the open raise:

99+, AJs+, AKo, A5s-A2s.

This is somewhat more value heavy than what I actually 3 bet in this spot, because I just click the pot button when 3 betting in position with such stacks.

But if villain only continues with the top 3% of his range (TT+, AK). We can't valuebet JJ-99, AJs and AKo. We have to put them in our flatting range right? So we only have AA, KK and maybe QQ in our 3bet value range. So we have 18 combos.

But how can I calculate how many bluffs I can have against this particular villain? What ratio?

Again it is a hypothetical situation. I want to know what math I have to do in order to get the answer.

Thank you.

Most hands will not win the whole pot in the long run, but rather you and your opponent will each earn a fraction of the blinds on top of your preflop investments.

It's my personal belief that you cant calculate how many bluffs you should have vs a particular opponent in real poker. Preflop poker isn't solved yet.
There is no answer yet. Applying mdf to this spot is a mistake. The question you should be asking is "which hands are profitable 3 bets?"

There are some hands in such a 3 betting range that have just enough realizable showdown equity in addition to fold equity, that they are profitable despite the absolute value of such hands. To a lot of poker enthusiasts, these look like preflop bluffs, but these hands simply perform better from an ev standpoint as part of a range than other hands perform. For example, you could substitute 76s for A2s in the range that I provided and your strategy would probably be pretty solid. However, I think the inclusion of A2s is slightly more profitable than 76s, even though it looks like 76s is a better bluff because it can cause hands that look better in an absolute sense to fold, Like A9o.

To clarify, are you saying he continues with a 3% range (a quarter of his opening range), or he continues with 91% of his opening range?
I think you're saying he folds to 3-bets 75% of the time (which is a lot), which would mean you can 3-bet light pretty often. Exactly how you build that range depends on what villain's range looks like.
FWIW, I don't think the terms "value" and "bluff" work particularly well pre-flop. e.g. You can 3-bet AK and get flatted by JJ and AQs, so your 3-bet simultaneously got called by better (JJ), and called by worse (AQ), but may have folded out some better hands like 55-22, and some worse hands like ATo.

Correct, he is only continuing with a quarter of his opening range. And correct, he is folding a lot. I did that on purpose so you guys could maybe show me how wide I must 3bet.

You say that it means that I can 3-bet 'pretty' light. That is exactly where I am searching for. But than in numbers Bob says this isn't solved (yet) so I guess I am asking for the impossible.

My thinking was. If he would only continue with TT+ and AK, I have loads of bluffs(with blockers to decrease their continuing combos). Every A9s-A2s, K9-K2s, AQo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo and JTo. But that would mean that I have 18 value combos and at least 224 bluff combos. That means a 1:12,4 value/bluff ratio. Or could I even include Qx, Jx and Tx?

It feels too good to be true. So I was aiming to solve it with math.

Btw. Is it a strange logic that if he folds 3/4 of his hands I could profitably 3bet bluff 3/4 of my range with any 2 cards (even with the demand of 3betting with hands which don't block any of the cards in his opening range).

It is. You're gonna get crushed quickly by anyone half decent in the blinds.

but you "decrease" his folding combos too. His continuing % will be about the same but with 76s you more aware where you are if he has called than with A8s

Wanted to point this out earlier, but couldn't put it as succinctly as you. Thanks!

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Okay, thanks for your opinions guys.