Cards folded realy have some "blocker effect" even though a realy light.

That is because small cards got preflop fold more often than high card. Imagine you play FR table, sitting on SB and everybody folded to you. 10 cards were folded, the cards are unknown but cannot be considered random. Because aces are played more often than small cards.
Previous folds make aces on flop, turn, river more likely and the same your range and range of the BB are stronger - both of you have A,K,Q... more often than without previous folds.
There were some simulations made, Nash ranges recalculated with regard to folded cards. Some diferences found, but not so big to care about it.

Here's yet another way of saying it:

9-handed game, you've got a spade flush draw on the turn and are heads up against one opponent.

Standard thinking says you have 9 outs from 46 remaining (unseen) cards, and so your odds of hitting on the river are 9/46.

Now, of course if you somehow knew that 6 spades were among the folded (and your heads-up opponent's) cards, your outs drop drastically to only 3, but don't forget you'd also subtract 16 cards from the remaining 46, since there are only 30 cards left in the deck to draw from. Therefore, your odds of hitting on the river are 3/30 (10%). Pretty terrible.

Next, let's make the opposite assumption. If somehow you knew not a single spade was among your opponents' cards, then you would still have the 9 outs, but, remembering to subtract the 16 cards that are no longer in the deck, your odds are 9/30. You're 30% to nail the river. So you have a much greater chance of hitting than conventional flush draw odds suggest.

OP, you're wanting to make theoretical assumptions that some of your outs are dead, therefore your odds have been negatively impacted. The point I'm trying to make is that the opposite hypothetical could also be true, that your odds are positively impacted by folded non-spade cards.

It's equally as likely for your drawing odds to be positively affected by card removal factors as it is for them to be negatively affected. On average, yeah probably a few of your outs WILL be in the muck. But this is why we leave the denominator at 46. We don't reduce it to 30, because every card that we have not seen with our own two eyes must be treated the same. They're all part of the same pool from which the next card will come.

For the purposes of determining probability of getting a particular card, or one of a particular set of cards, there are only two types of cards: Known cards, and unknown cards. If you're trying to complete a flush on the river, you have seen six cards (Your two and four board cards). There are 46 cards you haven't seen. Nine of the 46 unseen cards are of your suit. It matters not one bit to probability where those unseen cards are. You have a probability of 9/46 that the river card will make your flush. If you take 45 of the remaining cards and throw them in the fireplace there is still a 9/46 probability that the remaining card will complete your flush.

In the years I've been posting on gambling forums, this question has come up many times, and it seems to be really difficult for some people. I don't know why. To me it's obvious.

If you're on the button in a 9-handed game and its folded to you and you know the ranges of all the players that have folded thus far, there is definitely going to be some equation/math stuffs you could do to determine how often something like a 2 is folded there if you are holding 22.

For example, since more of their hands should be strong, it is more likely they fold something like 2X over AX, so when holding 22 OTB, it's more likely 2's have been removed than an A.

From a theory point of view, it is technically possible to calculate something like that if you know their ranges. But your specific example, chasing clubs, probably ends up canceling out.

Anyways, none of this is going to be useful and it would be pretty negligible.

See #1 in the FAQ:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...uction-676280/

If you actually do this, you will find that you will get the same answer:

I think an easy way to think about it is like in quantum mechanics the percentages you get are an average of the sum over all possibilities.

Haha nice level.

Hate QM

/end rant

come on 2015