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How does having a 3bet pool affect postflop combo selection? How does having a 3bet pool affect postflop combo selection?

04-13-2016 , 10:30 AM
I'm in position outside blinds

Lets say I have a 3bet value range of KK+, A5s-A4s (I plan to 3bet these and then 5bet shove them)

I call with a wide collection of decent hands and 3bet bluff hands that are not good enough to call with.

However I have chosen a 3bet pool (a selection of hands I 3bet a certain percentage of the time)

For example my 3bet pool might be to 3bet A9s-A6s, K9s-K8s, Q9s-Q8s, J9s-J8s, T9s-T8s, 97s-96s, 87s, 76s, 65s and I need to 3bet these 25% of the time.

The flop comes and lets say the opponent donks, the type of action isn't really important to the question, what is important is that I have decided how many combos I need to continue with. Lets say I need 10 combos for simplicity.

The flop is

J98

The first thing that comes to my mind is that J9 is the first combo on my value list but then I realise... hold on, I don't have J9 in my range, I have 25% of J9 in my range. If I made that one of my value combos I wouldn't be defending enough right?

If I made J9 first on my value list but call it 25% of a combo (so I need to select more than 10 to make up for it) then the turn would be impossible because of all the possible hands I could hold multiplying to silly unworkable levels.

I need to somehow consolidate my possible hands into a simple number of combos to continue with.

My question is how do I decide my 10 value combos here?
How does having a 3bet pool affect postflop combo selection? Quote
04-13-2016 , 11:32 AM
Just call the required amount, if it's 10 combos, call 10 combos.

25% of J9s is one combo, then you need 9 others. 25% of all J9 is 4 combos.
How does having a 3bet pool affect postflop combo selection? Quote
04-16-2016 , 09:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doctor877
Just call the required amount, if it's 10 combos, call 10 combos.

25% of J9s is one combo, then you need 9 others. 25% of all J9 is 4 combos.
But doesn't that mean I'm not defending enough, aren't I deluding myself in thinking I'm defending with 10 combos when actually I'm not?

Or does it work out somehow in a way I can't seem to visualize?

I worry that J9 will be my value range on the flop, then I'll choose some bluffs and some of those might be made up of my preflop value range.

For example if I choose to bluff A5s on the flop for every J9s then in reality aren't I bluffing way too much because I don't actually have J9s most of the time?
How does having a 3bet pool affect postflop combo selection? Quote
04-16-2016 , 09:52 PM
Well obviously you need to take that into account. Not hard to multiply the combos with 50% if you only go to postflop with 50% of them.

"Oh here 87s is straight, do I have it?? Hmmmm I 3bet it 50%, so I got it sometimes but not often, so I can't bluff that much here. Because I only have #2 absolute 87s combos."
How does having a 3bet pool affect postflop combo selection? Quote
04-17-2016 , 09:12 AM
Yes, it only counts with a 1/4th weight. So it's 1/2 or 3/4 combos depending on whether the J and 9 on the board are the same suit or not. You can verify this by thinking through how often you have J9s vs say AK in that spot.

In the end you want to be continuing x% of the time (say 67% if he bets half pot). Counting combos is just a shortcut to doing this.
How does having a 3bet pool affect postflop combo selection? Quote
04-18-2016 , 10:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ambientsilence
Yes, it only counts with a 1/4th weight. So it's 1/2 or 3/4 combos depending on whether the J and 9 on the board are the same suit or not. You can verify this by thinking through how often you have J9s vs say AK in that spot.

In the end you want to be continuing x% of the time (say 67% if he bets half pot). Counting combos is just a shortcut to doing this.
Well I work out how many combos I need to continue with by working out my required defence first.

I work of the bet as a percentage of the pot and then the percentage I have to defend, then I do card removal on the flop and finally work out how many combos of my remaining range that is.

Is there a quicker way?

I can work out the weights and protect my raises on the flop, I just find it very different when I call and have to deal with weights after the flop, considering draws that might appear.

Is a 3bet pool a better idea than a static 3bet selection?

In reality my 3bet pool is always an awkward number. Should I round my bluff percentages to 25%/50%/75%?

Even then it gets awkward because what if I pick up a flush draw, .25*.25 = 0.0625 of a combo?

But since all this introduces a margin of error, maybe a static bluff range is better?

I won't be able to hit as many boards, and I have to remember a ton of ranges rather than a percentage number but it'll be a lot easier to deal with post flop.

Thoughts on this would be appreciated.
How does having a 3bet pool affect postflop combo selection? Quote

      
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