Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148
This is where your calculations are wrong. To find out how often the button will win the blinds against a 65% folding small blind and a 30% folding big blind, you multiply the frequencies:
(.65)(.30) = 0.195
19.5% of the time the button will win the blinds under those circumstances.
Woops, I calculated the odds of either one of them folding instead of calculating the odds of either one of them calling.
hmmm..
Let my try to calculate the odds of either one of them calling
This is what I did;
Quote:
The SB will fold 65% of the time.
So in the case that our SB would call which will happen 35% of the time, our BB will call 35% of the time.
So you do 0.65 + (0.35*0.35) = 0.7725.
That means that either one of them will fold 77,25% of the time
Okay but now let me calculate either one of them calling instead.
The SB will call 35% of the time.
So in the case that our SB would fold which will happen 65% of the time, our BB will call 65% of the time.
So you do 0.35 + (0.65*0.65) = 0.7725
Coincidentally the odds of either one of them calling equals the odds of either one of them folding.
So anyways let's get back to point. if either one of them will call 77,25% of the time, that means that we will win the pot uncontested 22,75%.
NOT 19.5%
Still not convinced? Okay. Let's say everyone at the table folds 80% of the time. (they have a VPIP of 20%)
We're in 6-max, You're UTG. 5 Players to act.
According to your logic we should do: (0.80)*(0.80)*(0.80)*(0.80)*(0.80) = 0.32%
So you're saying that the event of an entire table folding in this case would be 0.32%??? It's not as rare seeing an entire table fold... It happens way often.
EDIT: oops, I meant 0.32 not 0.32%. 0.32 = 32%
Ok so maybe you're right.
But I haven't done any calculations like these in my charts since there was no need to it.
EDIT2: looks like both of our calculations actually lead to the same result, scroll down to my following post.
Last edited by illumanatee; 06-04-2015 at 03:21 PM.