I just ran the following simulation in CardRunnersEV, and I'm getting a discrepancy w/ the results (vs. my understanding of what should happen).

Cutoff: AA

Button: QQ

Flop: T35

Cutoff bets 1/2 pot with all combinations. Button calls all combinations.


Turn: 5

Cutoff bets 50% of combinations. Button folds.

Cutoff checks 50% of combinations. Button bets whenever cutoff checks.

Cutoff raises all-in with 25% of combinations, and folds the rest.

Button folds whenever Cutoff raises all-in.

I don't understand why the simulation is telling me that Button has a flop call EV of .81, as it seems this should be zero. Is it just an error in the Monte Carlo?

Anybody?

Because if the flop come KJ4 you can fold with queens. If the flop comes AJ8 you can and should fold. So you only lose the money you put in preflop $10 max in 1/2 blinds. But if the flip comes q72, you can bet 15 on flop and 40 on turn and 100 on river. $165 profit!!!!! That's your small equity! You can really hurt pocket aces and aq on that board. It's easier to play in position. You can call or raise depending on his stack if he bets. If he checks, you really have to check bc it's such a monster hand. Qqq!

On the flop of T35, you can fold on turn and rivrr depending on turn n river.

I suck at math, but I think it's something like this.

Button, in flop psb:

call flop fold turn 50% -0.5 = -0.25
call flop bet/win turn: 37.5% +1.5 = +0.5625
call flop bet/lose turn: 12.5% -1.5 = -0.1875

total = +.125

In big blinds that would be .81 if the pot on the flop was 6.5bb, i.e. 2.5 open by cutoff.