Quote:
Originally Posted by AaronBrown
While it's true that players get better as the tournament goes along, there's a lot of randomness so the effect is not huge. There are countervailing forces as well. Players can get fatigued or bored, or play more carelessly when their stacks get big. ICM considerations mean that if A makes it to the next level twice as often with half the stack of B, A will win more money.
I think a bigger consideration is that playing aggressively at all stages of the tournament helps you win. Say you need four stack doublings to make it to the bubble, you should think about what the best opportunities for doublings are. Just trying to survive and hoping to sneak into the bubble with a short stack rarely wins.
So I think you're probably right that you need to fight more early, but fight for chips, not to fry fish.
LOL, every time I start to think we are going to disagree on something, you turn it around, following with what I believe to be the correct dissenting opinion.
I think that ICM considerations vs skill edges are the main point here. Early on, the effects of ICM are at the lowest point, while exploitative skill edges over the softer players will generally be at it's highest. However it's much more involved than that.
As you approach the bubble, ICM will simply handcuff you into making the correct decision when you are covered and at risk.
Why, this is so is that while risk/reward or CEV/$EV is severely skewed for both players involved in a hand near the bubble and therefore net -$EV for both players if taking a showdown, the shorter stack will clearly be far more at risk so big stacks can simply bully shorter stacks. "Bully" is a very accurate term since, in a fight both can get hurt but clearly the weaker fighter will be getting the worst of it so their stronger need to avoid conflict is leveraged.
How the only two players in a hand can be net -$EV is that, while they are still net positive CEV due to blinds/antes, or zero sum by orbit, the $ is still in the prize pool therefore the net $ loss is distributed to the rest of the field.
This is why it's important to be the bigger stack in these situations and why chip accumulation before the bubble can actually be, overall, more +$EV for the individual player taking slightly more risks even if each individual risk itself, might be increasingly slightly net lower $EV at each level. I admit, it's a confusing area and took me some time to fully grasp myself.
This is why aggression is rewarded so much more in tournament situations. It's important to note that this aggression is rewarded only as far as your opponents understand ICM since bullying players who are going to make ICM mistakes is a mistake in itself.
While it's not directly answering the OP, I think that applying the concepts of chip accumulation is jumping the gun unless you can understand this ICM concept more fully.
Understanding when and against whom becomes an increasingly larger component over just the how alone at each level.