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 07-08-2012, 11:09 PM #1 grinder     Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: uNL 6max (follow my PG&C) Posts: 471 Figuring this out Hey. If I assign someone a specific value range, for example 25 combo's that he never folds, then work out he needs to fold to a shove 38%, how do I work out how many combo's he needs to fold in order for the shove to be 0EV? (like how do i work out how many to add in?) eg. he has 25 value combo's that call my shove 100% but if I were to shove, he needs to fold 38% for me to break even, so I need to add in that 38% that folds, in combo's. Its something like 15 just by looking at the numbers I think but need to know the math, thanks.
 07-08-2012, 11:35 PM #2 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Vancouver, BC Posts: 5,661 Re: Figuring this out So his calling range is 25 combos which you set to be 62%. The folding range is 38% so just multiply by the ratio of percents. 25*(38%/62%) = ~15.
 07-08-2012, 11:40 PM #3 grinder     Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: uNL 6max (follow my PG&C) Posts: 471 Re: Figuring this out nice, thanks
 07-09-2012, 08:52 PM #4 veteran   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,335 Re: Figuring this out The simple proportionality method suggested is okay as a first approximation. However, you should recognize that it assumes each combo has the same occurrence probability. In actuality, pairs have 6 possibilities. suited connectors 4 (Jd Td), unsuited connectors 12 (Jd Tc), two premium, or Ax - suited or unsuited, 16 ways (AQs, AQo). So, if villain's 25 calling combos include all pairs and most suited connectors, then you would probably have to add in less that 15 additional combos since each added combo will likely have 16 possibilities. Not sure if this is worth considering, tho.
 07-09-2012, 09:02 PM #5 grinder     Join Date: Jun 2012 Location: uNL 6max (follow my PG&C) Posts: 471 Re: Figuring this out thanks
07-09-2012, 11:19 PM   #6
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Vancouver, BC
Posts: 5,661
Re: Figuring this out

Quote:
 Originally Posted by statmanhal The simple proportionality method suggested is okay as a first approximation. However, you should recognize that it assumes each combo has the same occurrence probability. In actuality, pairs have 6 possibilities. suited connectors 4 (Jd Td), unsuited connectors 12 (Jd Tc), two premium, or Ax - suited or unsuited, 16 ways (AQs, AQo). So, if villain's 25 calling combos include all pairs and most suited connectors, then you would probably have to add in less that 15 additional combos since each added combo will likely have 16 possibilities. Not sure if this is worth considering, tho.
Usually "combos" means what you're calling "possibilities". Pairs have 6 combos, etc. Of course you can weight combos - if he takes this line with AA 50% of the time then call it 3 combos instead of 6, or whatever.

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