So let's say that i'm facing a shove which gives me 30% pot odds to call and my equity is 36%, is calling +EV?

My doubt is that doing a little of math i calculated my EV multiplying 36% by deadmoney+villain bet. This would result in and EV of 1.55 (which is lower than the 1.88$ i have to call).

Here's the hand:




Am I wrong?

What range you put him on that gives you 36%

As is a 4bet i reduced the range and it gives me a 16% equity to your hand

Assuming you have 36% equity (which I don't really think is true), then:

The problem with your math is that the way you are doing it assumes that you lose the $1.88 100% of the time which isn't true. Two ways to do it:

ONE

You win 36% of the time and lose 64% of the time (not actually wins and losses, but rather equity because ties are possible). So multiply the amount you win by 36% and multiply the amount you lose by 64% and find the difference.

[36% * (2.45 + 1.88)] - (64% * 1.88) = EV
1.5588 - 1.2032 = EV
0.3556 = EV


TWO

Find what the total pot size will be if you call (add current pot + villain's bet + your call). You have 36% equity in this amount so multiply it by 36%. This is how much you'll get back from the pot. Now subtract from it the amount you needed to put into the pot.

[36% * (2.45 + 1.88 + 1.88)] - 1.88 = EV
2.2356 - 1.88 = EV
0.3556 = EV

Thanks alot Lego for the good explaination!

Fwiw, i know my equity because i called him down and he showed AhQh.

GL at the tables...

Pff you understood that lol!

You guys are impressive with your maths ... And I don't hate the play... But it is so much easier to just compare the size of the bet to the amount of the villains range that we beat.

In that example, his range is pretty much only AQ, or maybe AK or AJ... He has our draw owned a lot too. We would need the bet to be tiny if we want to make the call. Big mistake calling here.

I play tournaments so my hand reading may be off but just because he showed down AQs doesn't really pin-down your equity vs the villain. You have to estimate your equity vs the full possible hand range of the opponent at this point.

I would say your preflop 4 bet really narrows the opponent range.
AA may just call the 4 bet to always keep you in the pot.
KK, and often QQ will probably just jam pre, JJ could possibly call and lesser pairs probably fold, AKs,AKo and AQ could call.

My guess is your hand equity is more like 25 to 30% equity, the only way I could see your equity getting above 30% is if the opponent will 3-bet then call a 4 bet with mid pairs 88,99 perhaps, and these seem more like set mining hands than calling 4 bet ones.

The equity you need is when EV = 0.0 (ie, what you put in at the decision point you get back later) and so you need the amount you put in ie, 1.88 to be equal to what comes back to you.
What comes back is your hand equity * the final pot size. So
(Amount to put in)/(final pot) = (break even hand equity) and this is 1.88/6.21 = ~30% to break even.

I think it is quite close but a fold, not +EV to call. (As mentioned I don't play cash so my reading may be well off).

I would think that a more accurate range than just the AQ he happened to have would be something like: AA,QQ,JJ,AK,AQ. And I think TsTc has about 26% equity against that range.

But then again, when thinking that, I was kinda thinking 100 big blind stacks and a decent villain (and even then AA, and to a lesser extent AK, would be somewhat unlikely as they would likely be mostly 5bet pre), but here villain has 61 big blinds to start the hand and is probably bad, so the range may be pretty different. I don't know anything about villain though so as to be able to hazard a guess.

If we put villain on a range of KK(with a spade),QQ-JJ,AQs+,KQs,AQo+, your equity on that board is <27%, which is considerably less than the 30% you need.

Board: AdQs8sJs
---- Equity Win Tie
Vill - 73.13% 73.13% 0.00% { QQ-JJ, KdKs, KhKs, AQs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hero - 26.87% 26.87% 0.00% { TsTc }

The rake "steals" about 5% of the pot too, so it's not a profitable call. Villain can also have a random Ax with the nut flush draw (putting you in really bad shape), and his range would need to include some random bluffs (i.e. you need to be already ahead of something like 99 or 76s) for this to be +EV.

Why is KQs in the range?

Marches you need to compare your equity to the pot odds of your call:
1.88/ (2.45+1.88+1.88) = 30.27%

you are well behind most of his 4 bet call range on that board; you are only ahead of 99 88 which maybe constitute 10% of his 4 bet calling range. also As Ks make up a lot of his range of AA AKs Ak0 AQs AQo so against those your flush draw is no good. I think this brings your equity to less than 30% overall.