Two Plus Two Poker Forums Does everyone really have equal luck?
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read Video Directory TwoPlusTwo.com

 Notices

 Poker Theory General poker theory

 07-17-2012, 05:49 AM #16 veteran     Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 2,012 Re: Does everyone really have equal luck? ^ luck in poker. good variance and bad variance. so does everyone have equal share of good variance and bad variance? in theory, yes.
 07-17-2012, 09:41 AM #17 Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Austin, TX Posts: 14,938 Re: Does everyone really have equal luck? Actually, in theory everyone does NOT have an equal share of "good and bad" variance, over any finite number of hands.
 07-17-2012, 10:11 AM #18 enthusiast   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 72 Re: Does everyone really have equal luck? But they have an equal probability of running good or bad over any finite set of future hands. :-) You're right, though, that this discussion hinges on what you mean by luck. If you mean some mystical property that attaches to you, causing you to run better or worse, then there's no such animal. If you just mean that sometimes you run good or bad, then yes, obviously, and that running good or bad is not evenly distributed.
07-17-2012, 10:24 AM   #19
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 14,938
Re: Does everyone really have equal luck?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by RoyalFish But they have an equal probability of running good or bad over any finite set of future hands. :-)
Of course. However if you and I agree to flip coins 1000 times or whatever (that is, each of us flipping our own coin), it is expected that we will end up with a different number of heads, one of us will have more.

In fact I was curious so I just wrote a little program that simulates this. I did 1000 series of 1000 flips each. The 2 players had a different number of heads 982/1000 of these times. The average difference was +.39 flip for player 1 (which is just noise) but the average absolute deviation was 17.5 flips.

A surprising result to some people, I think, is that if you increase the number of flips, the disparity gets greater. For example, 1000 runs of 10k flips has 992/1000 results where one player got more heads than the other and the average absolute deviation was 60.

However we can see that deviation/N decreases, since we went from
17.5/1000 = 0.0175
to
60/10000 = 0.006

But yes, by no means, do we expect 2 people to have "equal luck"

07-17-2012, 10:50 PM   #20
veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,640
Re: Does everyone really have equal luck?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by pokercapital The saying goes that over the long term everyone gets the same cards, but skill separates. Is this true? What is the distribution of luck? What if it's normally distributed? It's sad to think that some people could be skilled and lose long term because they got shafted by the poker gods.
Of course not. Some people get better cards and get into better situations than others over a lifetime. Just like some people win the lottery while others don't.

But the key idea is that past luck is not a predictor of future luck. So it makes sense to say that someone was unlucky in the past. But it doesn't make sense to say that he's just naturally unlucky and should expect bad luck.

Then again, most people who think they are unlucky are actually bad.

 07-19-2012, 12:17 AM #21 banned     Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: DEATH ALLEY ARIZONA Posts: 154 Re: Does everyone really have equal luck? Supposedly it is possible for one to hop onto any given 'thread' of varience and randomness for a short time, and always loose..
07-19-2012, 12:44 PM   #22
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: lnternet
Posts: 11,727
Re: Does everyone really have equal luck?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cheese Over the long run, yes, everyone really does have equal luck. However, "the long run" can be longer than a lot of bankrolls.
just not true. the relative deviation from the mean will get smaller, but the absolute deviation from the mean will grow arbitrarily large.

people need to understand this.. but they wont.

IT DOES NOT even out in the long run.

 07-19-2012, 02:55 PM #23 adept     Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Playin' It Smart Posts: 745 Re: Does everyone really have equal luck? ^^^ Right -- as N grows, the AVERAGE amount of luck for everyone will approach the same level, but the ABSOLUTE amount will not. For example, as people play more poker hands, the average number of times each person gets AA will approach the same number, but the total number of times each person gets AA will diverge. Some people will get many more AA than others. That difference will grow larger as N grows. And the distribution will be approximately normal. But the average (that is, the total number of AA's each person gets divided by the total number of hands they play) will converge to a single number. That distribution will also be approximately normal, but the curve will get narrower as N gets larger.
 07-19-2012, 08:23 PM #24 stranger   Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 10 Re: Does everyone really have equal luck? No everyone does not have equal amounts of luck. How many times does one player make it deep in a big tournament that can change their life? And of that maybe 5% of the time you get that big rush of being deep with life changing money in effect what if variance decides it's not your day and ends it for you. That could happen 10 times in a row in this situation and by then you would be 129 years old and it wouldn't matter if variance decided it was your day because you would be dead in 12 days anyways. May the poker gods be with me!!!!
 07-19-2012, 08:40 PM #25 stranger   Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 10 Re: Does everyone really have equal luck? play your best and do all you can to beat the game with +EV at all times and hope for the best and plan for the worst!
 07-20-2012, 06:41 PM #26 centurion     Join Date: Jul 2012 Location: Michigan Posts: 186 Re: Does everyone really have equal luck? In theory yes I suppose. For all intents and purposes no.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is OffTrackbacks are Off Pingbacks are Off Refbacks are Off Forum Rules

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:55 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top