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 05-26-2012, 01:20 PM #1 newbie   Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 46 cold 4bet bluff I'm wondering how profitable cold 4bet as a bluff is. let's say HJ open 3bb, CO 3bet to 9bb and Hero (BTN) 4bet to 22bb. if HJ and CO go all-in with AK,QQ+ and fold everything else. Since the range is 2.6% does this means that if CO is 3betting 5% he will fold 50% of the time ? thanks
 05-26-2012, 03:34 PM #2 centurion     Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: State College, PA Posts: 158 Re: cold 4bet bluff We can write the EV of this out explicitly: EV = F*13.5 + (1-F)*(-22) = 35.5F - 22 where F is the probability that both fold. If Fh and Fc are the folding probabilities of the HJ and CO, then F = Fh*Fc. Ignoring card removal effects, if Rh and Rc are the ranges of the HJ and CO (in percentage), then Fh = (Rh-2.6)/Rh = 1 - 2.6/Rh Fc = 1 - 2.6/Rc All together: EV = 35.5*(1 - 2.6/Rh)*(1 - 2.6/Rc) - 22 Suppose the HJ is opening 20% and the CO is 3betting 8%. Then, plugging those numbers in gives: EV = 35.5*.87*.675 - 22 = -1.15 So in that situation you would be losing 1.15 bb on average each time you do this. If the CO is 3-betting 10% the EV is +.85 so it would be (slightly) profitable.
 05-26-2012, 09:58 PM #3 newbie   Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 46 Re: cold 4bet bluff thanks a lot, very interesting

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