Hello. I have been playing around in Cardrunners EV and it has confused me.

I was testing some floating strategies that I calculated where an EV of -0.4bb and it is telling me that my strategy is -0.8bb. I am not saying the software is wrong but I am certainly confused. Here is the scenario :


We are HU, CO vs BTN with ATC.

Flop is AAJr

CO cbet their entire range for 5bb into 7.5bb and we call ATC.

CO barrels turn 50% and we fold 100% and checks 50%. The 50% they check we bet 12bb into 17.5bb 100% they fold 90%. The 10% they call we just check it down on every run out.


By my numbers villain is check folding 50% * 90% = 45%

45% we win 8bb (his pf raise and flop cbet)

50% we lose 8bb (our pf call and flop call)

So our EV is -0.4bb

Although CREV says our EV is -0.8bb?

I don't understand where I have went wrong. Is my math correct?

Any help greatly appreciated, thank you.

First, you need to state what is the decision point that you're looking the EV for. If it's flop, you need to use the pot on the flop in your calculations as a part of your winnings, it doesn't matter any more who put the money in there preflop.

Also, when you're calculating manually, you assume that you lose every time? If CO has some range and he just randomly calls 10% at CREV, you having 2 random cards, you'll also win some of those checked down pots.

One more thing to check is that you have rake turned off at CREV.

Okay. Rake is like 5% so I don't think it will effect it as much as 0.4bb, so I don't think turning that off will change much but I see your point there.


I guess the main question I should have asked is this .....

If we just assume we lose 100% when he barrels (which obviously isn't the case) and we assume we never win when we check it down, after villain check/calls his 10% on the turn (which again is obviously not the case), how would you calculate the EV of a float with any hand with 0% pot equity?


If he is cbetting flop 100%, then barreling turn 50% and checking 50%, then check/calling 10% and folding the other 90%, how do we calculate the EV of a float, strictly under these conditions?

Is he folding 45% if he is checking 50% and folding to the turn bet 90%?


Thank you

EV of the float is
.45*(7.5+5) - .5*5 - .05*(5+12)

At what point in the hand does CREV report the EV as -0.8? Preflop?

Can you break this math down for me please? I don't know where you get the bit at the end.

It says my overall strategy is -0.8bb at preflop, yes.

5% of the time, you lose both your flop call and the turn bet you make (that's the times he check-calls).

You can check if my math works: give CO AA only, yourself 23o only (so you lose every time he check-calls turn). Look at the EV crEV reports for you on the FLOP decision point, this is the expected value of the float decision. (Also make the rake 0, I didn't put that in my calcs).

Okay I shall do that and post about results later.


Thanks a lot for the help, I appreciate it a lot.

It says the EV of a float is +$3.5

My CREV gives the same number the equation does. I assume you give CO and yourself a range, not AA for him and 72o for you? That would mean that you still often win at the checkdown branch, giving a higher EV for the float. (This, of course, is actually more realistic, as you're likely to float with some equity in the first place and win sometimes when the float is called... but it doesn't answer the original question )

I hope you don't mind me chiming in here. So here I go with out trying to sound like a ass, but where did you get that he will double barrel with 100% of his range and think he will double barrel 50% of the time? There are some missing factors that your not putting in to consideration but I am for sure with out a doubt know he will not double barrel 50% if he cb 100% of the time. Let's use some logice here think about how wide his pf open range is and I can say for sure he will be more likely betting the turn about 25-30%. How do I know this because those are boards most villians are one and done unless you been caught floating previously . Also keep in mind you will not have any 2 cards even though I know that is an experiment. The reason why guys won't double barrel is they realized very rare will a guy call with out connecting with the flop. I think that is a good situation though and me personally don't think I need card runners ev for that spot but I would like to know how on earth will this product help me come up with counter strategies?

Hi. ¿How much this program?

5% you lose 20BB (3+5+12): EV= -1BB
[less than 5% if you have equity but you don't give CO's starting range]

You forgot to add the Blinds to your winnings and completely omitted the 5% when you bet Turn and got called.

[P] I think you have the following on your double-float-bluff (calculated before you put anything in the pot preflop):
0.45*(1.5+3+5) - 0.5*8 - 0.05*(8+12) = -0.73 BB
Winnings______ -Fold____ -Called

After several error corrections that's pretty close to -0.8BB
5% Rake costs you 0.875 BB which is certainly significant. Rake of 1.6% takes us to -0.8Bb ..did you have 1.5% rake dialed in?

Alternatively perhaps you had rake but it also gave you some winnings from those 5% called and checked down.

...or I still have the formula slightly wrong