Fish: Hey, this PLO is an awesome game! Tons of action!

Solid player on downswing: grumble. . . mumble. . . stuck 3 months rent tonight

Fish: Stop whining! I didn't complain when I lost 10K last month.

Expert variance reducer: I know a great game with even more action. It's just like PLO, but you play for both high and low. Even if your draw misses, you can still hit your low and win half the pot. And the pots are huge!

Fish: That might be fun, I'll give it a try.

Solid player on downswing: I don't really get this low thing, but I'll try it too. It can't be too different from what I'm used to. Maybe I'll get unstuck.

Dealer: Floor! New plaque on table 3.





Q.E.D.

By far, the largest mistake I see even good players make involving variance is in tournament selection.

Given the large field sizes of many tournaments, the size of the field should be a larger consideration than even the buy-in amount since payout schedules tend to concentrate the prize pool as the numbers grow even if the percent of the field paid stays the same.

The following charts %of Prize Pool vs %of field. Payout schedules were based on PokerStars payouts for 9, 90, & 900 players paid at least prior to BF. Therefore a 15% payout would be for fields of 60, 600, & 6,000 players respectively.



Perhaps this could suggest why wealth concentrates at the top in a static economy i.e. 0 sum gain being similar to tournament conditions only changing the x axis to 0 to 100% with a very large population sample.

Which proposition has more variance?

1) A beautiful woman says she'll go out with you if a fair coin comes up heads 10 out of 20 flips, and if it doesn't you must promise never speak to her again.

2) A friend bets you $300,000 to your $300,000 that you won't pick one of the following cards out of a 52-card deck in one try: any 2-7, or the Jd.

#2.

#1 is basically a free-roll. #2 is a monster-stakes coinflip.

Is this a thought exercise designed to encourage poker players to understand the value in avoiding flips and maximizing value in spots where they're free-rolling?

No variance money is the best money. I free-rolled to the nut flush a MAGWEP in all Hugo Boss who had just sat down with a full rack of red the other night. Felt great.

a) I want to make sure I understand variance correctly

b) Your answer is a decent response to OP. It's good imho to be aware of what kind of variance we court with certain decisions, just because something is +EV doesn't mean it's a good bet