Calling a shove against chronic shover - Poker Theory

Lasaronen · 02-03-2012, 02:00 PM

Here's the scenario:

Heads-up, cash, 100 big blinds deep (and counting), NLHE. Your opponent is very tilted and is starting to shove every single hand PF. If you call and win, he's lost his roll. If you call and lose, he'll immediately leave.

What hands should you call with? This should be solvable with a bit of math, but I can't think of a way to do it.

yaqh · 02-03-2012, 02:13 PM

i dont rly want to get into the theory... its not something you can do by hand, and it's around here somewhere if you search.

but the answer is 88-AA at 100bbs in the extreme case that he keeps shipping it pre w/ any two cards whenever he has the chance and doesnt leave until he gets all in.

Swagga86 · 02-03-2012, 04:55 PM

I would add AKs to that list

Ronin Talken · 02-03-2012, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yaqh

i dont rly want to get into the theory... its not something you can do by hand, and it's around here somewhere if you search.

but the answer is 88-AA at 100bbs in the extreme case that he keeps shipping it pre w/ any two cards whenever he has the chance and doesnt leave until he gets all in.

That range is way too tight for the given scenario IMO. I think I need to see the theory, lol

yaqh · 02-03-2012, 05:01 PM

nice ninja edit

. i did do the theory first.

as i said, the theorys around here somewhere. i wanna say sklansky was OP and EvilSteve ended up solving a very similar problem, but i could be misremembering.

Ronin Talken · 02-03-2012, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yaqh

nice ninja edit

. i did do the theory first.

as i said, the theorys around here somewhere. i wanna say sklansky was OP and EvilSteve ended up solving a very similar problem, but i could be misremembering.

Yeah, my tone came across as mean/indignant instead of as witty banter. =P
Sorry about that. I ninja-edited to what I meant, lol.

I'd really like to see the math here. Of course, it seems like an incomplete question. Does villain ever stop shoving? Can we top off?

LazyAce · 02-03-2012, 05:21 PM

I played a session last month at 10NL where this guy shipped all-in almost every hand, though I don't think there was really a specific reason why he folded certain hands because he showed up with stuff like 85o and what not.

This guy was reloading to 100bb and ended up dropping 16 buyins in the session.

I opened any playable hand vs him and managed to get all-in pre with KQo vs K2. I stacked him net 5 times.

I don't know the math or theory but if somebody is shipping atc I'm pretty happy to gamble with them.

Not sure how things change if we know they're leaving and its HU though. I guess we can afford to be tighter since we're not worried about somebody else getting his stack and should maybe be more concerned with waiting for a better spot - ugh I hate to say this!

Swagga86 · 02-03-2012, 05:23 PM

I would even add AQs as well, just imo but you can call with a decent range of hands 77-AA, AJs+, maybe KQs.

LazyAce · 02-03-2012, 05:29 PM

How long is villain staying at the table if we keep folding to his shoves? How much is our current stack? I think it matters how much we have in our stack since we can win back whatever we lose from folding our blinds and can potentially wait for a premium hand.

I'd never do that in reality though. First decent Ace or 88+ and I'm in for sure probably adding in KQ and KJ too.

yaqh · 02-03-2012, 05:46 PM

my range was for the case that villain keeps shoving pre whenever he has the chance and doesnt leave until one player goes broke. it assumes no topping off and no rake. and, given those assumptions, i'm quite sure that it's correct.

ofc in more realistic scenarios where villain might suddenly leave or resume normal play, there's less reason to wait for a better spot, and you can loosen up the calling range some. also, if villain will reload instead of leaving after getting stacked, there's less reason to wait for a better spot.

EvilSteve · 02-03-2012, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yaqh

nice ninja edit

. i did do the theory first.

as i said, the theorys around here somewhere. i wanna say sklansky was OP and EvilSteve ended up solving a very similar problem, but i could be misremembering.

The scenario is a bit different and there's an ante but no blinds. But here's the thread:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15...expert-208965/

Ronin Talken · 02-03-2012, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by yaqh

my range was for the case that villain keeps shoving pre whenever he has the chance and doesnt leave until one player goes broke. it assumes no topping off and no rake. and, given those assumptions, i'm quite sure that it's correct.

ofc in more realistic scenarios where villain might suddenly leave or resume normal play, there's less reason to wait for a better spot, and you can loosen up the calling range some. also, if villain will reload instead of leaving after getting stacked, there's less reason to wait for a better spot.

This makes sense.
I'd really love to see some math behind this, if anyone knows where it can be found.

elocutionist · 02-03-2012, 07:15 PM

If you are certain he will leave if he wins, then I would leave first and find a better spot.

eldodo42 · 02-03-2012, 10:13 PM

^^

Is "find a better spot" the new phrase du jour, like "clicking it back" or "range merging"? Because I'm developing a distinct dislike of this phrase, especially when it is used in entirely senseless ways.

elocutionist, no offense, but your post does not make sense. A villain open shoving every hand is the best spot imaginable (well, except a villain open-folding the top of his range and open-shoving the rest). You will not find a better spot anywhere. I think your sentiment is to reduce variance, but given the described setting this is tragically misguided thinking. Or maybe I misunderstood you somehow?

tringlomane · 02-04-2012, 01:10 AM

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...-hand-1089830/

Quote:

Originally Posted by Karganeth

With the villain as the small blind, the proper calling range is 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J5s+,T7s+,98s,A2o+,K2o+,Q5o+,J7 o+,T8o+ for 51.4%. The average bb per hand for this strategy is 7.523bb/hand

Quote:

Originally Posted by tringlomane

Yeah, I get the same answers for this. Where Kar gets this range is simply where the equity is greater than 49.5% (which is better than folding the bb). This range of hands gives an average equity of 57.786% when calling.

When Hero is SB, his range needs to change slightly in this maniacal scenario, because he only has a small blind in preflop, so the equity needed to gamble for stacks is now 49.75%. This actually makes us throw out J7o and T8o in our stack-off range.

So when hero is SB, the range is now:
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J5s+,T7s+,98s,A2o+,K2o+,Q5o+,J8 o+,T9o+ for 49.623% calling hands. This yields an average equity of 58.081%, and this will yield a profit for Hero of 7.768 bb/hand on the button.

So since we know the optimal results for a toy game like this, we can appropriately calculate it's variance and standard deviation.

When Hero is on the button, there are 3 scenarios to consider, folding, winning a shove, losing a shove, so the variance for this is as follows:

(0.50377)*(-0.5 - 7.768)^2 + (0.49623)*(0.58081)*(100 - 7.768)^2 + (0.49623)*(0.41919)*(-100 - 7.768)^2 = 4902 bb^2/hand^2

The standard deviation when on the button is just the square root of the variance which is 70.0bb/hand.

When in the BB, the variance becomes:
(0.48567)*(-1 - 7.523)^2 + (0.51433)*(0.57786)*(100 - 7.523)^2 + (0.51433)*(0.42214)*(-100 - 7.523)^2 = 5087 bb^2/hand^2.

SD on the BB becomes 71.3bb/hand.

tl;dr

You guys are being way too nitty here. +EV is +EV if he's leaving after the called all-in regardless of the outcome.

Quote:

Originally Posted by elocutionist

If you are certain he will leave if he wins, then I would leave first and find a better spot.

Yeah, leaving a scenario that yields an average WR of ~7.6bb for the all-in is always a good idea...