Local game, guy is selling his quad Ks high hand of the month for $200. High hand pays $500. There are 6 ~8hr sessions left in the month. Semi loose-passive typical low stakes game. This would be for ~8% of my br; however, I am staked in this game with no makeup So i use my br to play live mtts.
Snap call?
Feel free to move this if there's a better forum. Thanks!
Are you imagining you will hit quad Ks in the next 6*8*30=1440 hands!!! Noway in hell this happens easily.
Explain more about this proposition like is it only KKKK that counts or any quads? If you mean only KKKK will pay and only if you started with KK then this is very rare indeed and 1440 hands is very small sample to expect it to be there easily also due to the fact that KK rarely survives action to river to see quads (much less often than smaller quads) , the hand is easily dead and gone before showdown typically and rarely is an all in preflop to see full board.
What am i missing here? Explain much better what the deal you are supposed to be buying in is here.
Just to get an idea;
If you have KK the chance you get quads if you deal all 5 cards (not always possible to see all 5 of course as explained) is (48,3)/(50,5) or 1 in 122.5. Since you are about to get KK only 1 in 221 hands it will take 27k hands roughly to see quad Ks if you were always allowed to deal all five which of course is nowhere near the true rate.
Basically you are looking at something that has 1 chance in 50k or worse to happen more like 1 in 80k hands or something. Basically in 1440 hands this has about less than 1.8% chance of happening. So the fair price is easily much less more like 10$ and less.
What am i missing here? Do other hands like AAAA or 2222 pay as well?
no high hand of the month pays $500. If I buy it from him, that means someone must hit
AAAA or better in the next six sessions, otherwise I gross $500. Thx for the numbers tho...but rly wondering more about the brm side of things: risk is ~8% of my br to add ~12% to my br
What is p(straight flush or quad AAs) over 48hours of a live 9 max game?
Easiest way to solve this is through a large database of play. I assume it must get shown down as well. I lost my database a while ago, so someone else would prob have a better idea. The percentage of those hands definitely gets higher in loose/passive games. Would estimate by 1.2x. You would need to estimate a number of hands per hour you play also.
Also, if you are one of the players in the game, you can impact the fair value of p(KKKK not high). ie pump the pot more if you make those hands if the pot is huge, or if the pot is small, either shove if your stack is large enough, or fold if not.
Ok i see what you mean , he already has KKKK and he is selling it as top and the buyer hopes it lasts until the end of the month to receive 500?
Then you need to tell us how many tables play at the same time of the 6x8 hour sessions left. You also need to tell us how many players per table on avg.
It will still be a tough problem but we can approximate at least to see if its bad or not.
Now you need to eliminate AAAA and straight flushes. Just give me the details i asked and we can try again. Never obviously played live for such bounty lol to get what you meant. What happens if another KKKK comes, split of the 500 or 2 prizes paid each 500?
Also you are not going to be personally playing the cash games right? And finally all those top hands require both hole cards to be used?
Last edited by masque de Z; 06-09-2012 at 11:13 PM.
Ok i see what you mean , he already has KKKK and he is selling it as top and the buyer hopes it lasts until the end of the month to receive 500?
Correct.
Quote:
Then you need to tell us how many tables play at the same time of the 6x8 hour sessions left. You also need to tell us how many players per table on avg.
1 tbl, let's say 8 players on avg.
It will still be a tough problem but we can approximate at least to see if its bad or not.
Now you need to eliminate AAAA and straight flushes. Just give me the details i asked and we can try again.
Quote:
Never obviously played live for such bounty lol to get what you meant. What happens if another KKKK comes, split of the 500 or 2 prizes paid each 500?
No worries. Not sure, good question though i would guess it would be a split. Will find out.
Quote:
Also you are not going to be personally playing the cash games right? And finally all those top hands require both hole cards to be used?
I will most likely play 3 or 4 of the 6 sessions.
Last edited by ticketmaster; 06-10-2012 at 04:57 AM.
Reason: not good with the quoting
You're really only getting 1.5 to 1. You're risking 200 to win 300. I assume the guy isn't going to give you your winning bet back as he'd have to to make this 2.5 to 1.
In the local charity games here there are 3-4 tables going from 12pm to 3am on every Friday night. When quads of any type hold up for the high hand (which they take $1 per $20pot for so it gets to 1600+ every night) everyone is surprised. No one in that game would buy KKKKx for more than $300 (when its laying 1600+) until at LEAST 10pm (5 hours to go)..
Straight flushes start to get decent offers ($600-1k). Also people with quads early typically sell them off very cheap (8888x might get an offer of $50-100 at 2pm and he will snap call it.)
Tough decision. Would be sick if you bought it and then the same guy beat KKKK with a straight flush or something and scooped $700.
One question I would ponder is: why would this guy want to sell you his high hand unless he thinks there is a good chance it won't hold. Maybe he's just busto... if you play regularity you should know what kind of hand usually wins by the end of the month (ex. does 4 of a kind win frequently, is it almost always a straight/royal flush?)
Two Plus Two
So i use my br to play live mtts. 
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