Hi

So I am trying to build an EV calculator in Excel and need some input.


First problem:
The example I am kind of basing it on calculates EV for a turn fold as
Villain folds 25%
We win 50 when he folds
EV = 50*0,25 = 12,5

Shouldnt we account for how much we bet? A pot sized bet has to work 50% to be profitable on its own. Which he says we do later when it calculates the EV on the river when we give up. So for me the 25% fold on the turn is -25 in EV?



Problem nr two:
The example is for a semi bluff on the turn and this is one part of the equation. I would like to make it from the flop but I am having trouble to conceptualize how to build the decision tree. This far I have come to the conclusion that on the flop and turn it can only be a binary outcome either there is a fold or we move to the next street. We can only win with a fold.

I was pondering if there would be a way to account for your own hand equity also?


I would like to have the calculator to be as modular as possible in the sense I can select different scenarios for each street.


Actually building it wont be a problem, my excel experience is more than advanced enough I just dont really feel super comfortable in my math.



I understand that EV calculations is just a set of assumptions for that scenario and if you want to make less assupmtions you have to expand the scenario with additional branches for thoose new possibilities. What I would like to know is what is in the realm of fairly possible/useful?

Example 1: You've calculated your fold equity and nothing more. You can bet 1 billion times the pot and your fold equity remains the same (he folds 25% which gains you 12,5 chips) but the term for the losing option is going to differ. You need to branch this into a fold/call/raise which all have a frequency and EV.

Example 2: From the flop you have trillions of different options because player 1 can check or bet, player 2 can check, bet or raise and the latter two will result in player 1 having yet 3 more options and then there is also different sizings.

You've now built in the EV for a fold on every street, you need to fill in the EV of getting called and having the best hand. When your opponent doesn't fold and you hit your hand on either the turn or river, which will happen at a frequency that is easily calculated, the EV tree branches out yet again.

If you want to make it modular then you're going to have a huge tree that you probably shouldn't be using Excel but rather build an actual application that has a built in equity calculator (like equilab).

If you want to tackle some basic lines you need to set restrictions like: player 2 can't raise or betsizing is always x% of the pot at the flop and all sorts of stuff. This is probably more useful because realistically the most bets that go in the pot after the flop is probably going to be 3 (1 bet at all streets can create a big pot). You can build scenarios for checkraising flops also which has limited options on turn and river so that can be easy enough, triple barreling vs pot control and stuff like that.

Also every street can have a different card which greatly influences the EV so even in a simple example the complexity is huge.

Yeah that is kind of what I was begining to realise as I went along that the decision tree can become enormous quite fast.


Maybe I can clarify alittle more on what I want to use the calculator for, I want to be able to set up a scenario from the flop to the river in the sense that I decide that it will be a BetCall, BetRaiseCall, BetCall line from the flop. I dont need it to branch of in possible scenarios just the scenario I setup. But I want to be able to change the sequences of BetCall, BetFold etc.


Overall I want to use the calculator just to start getting a better sense of the EV of standard lines.

I have developed a number of EV Excel calculators using its VBA programming language. These include call, lead bet and raise decisions along with determining indifference frequencies such as MDF. In every one of them, the following is assumed: heads up situation and showdown EV. The latter implies an all-in bet, a final river bet, or a check-down. In that way you essentially have a decision-ending situation. The inclusion of an Implied Winnings entry does partly account for future actions. While exact for when the assumptions are true I believe the results are still useful as a first cut approximation, which can be modified for more complex cases. It’s not unlike using an equity calculator like Equilab to help evaluate decisions when that tool completely ignores pot and bet amounts.

Sounds more or less what I am trying to build. Would you mind sharing it, I can totally understand if you dont though?

I summarized what I have done to show Excel EV analysis is quite possible. The VBA part is mostly to automate Excel’s Goal Seek function and to do input data error checking easier than Data Validation but VBA is not absolutely necessary. You’ll get much more benefit by doing it yourself than having it handed to you.

Hey Talladega

Why dont you start putting something together in Excel and then post in here when you get stuck?, even without knowing VBA its really easy to get snippets of VBA code from google and building what you want.

I'm happy to chime in everynow and then and help you out with your progress as I am sure others will. Stamanhal is right though, you will get better at excel by doing this yourself. Excel/VBA is pretty easy if you have the patients.

Waste of time to build this out in excel. Use card runners ev, from the same people who sell flopzilla, to do ev calculations and decision trees. Excel works when you're just calculating the values, but something like card runners ev will allow you to do all the decision trees and it does the important calculations for you, although I don't know if it calculates fold equity.

I do know how to use VBA, I've had looping macros fill in a 150+by 150 grids and whatnot. As explained earlier I am mostly just looking for inspiration on how to lay it out and a general guide.




Trouble is that I play PLO and from what I have seen before when I used CREV it was NL only. So not much help



A good way of explaining it is that I would want a model when I am painting. I can do all the brush strokes I just dont have a clear picture of what I want

But thanks for nice replys!