Quote:
Originally Posted by Poker Clif
How far does this logic extend?
It's turtles all the way down.
You need to consider which river cards will be best for you (in the scenario posted, an offsuit 4 would be great, since it will look like a blank to villain, but give you the nuts; the Ah would also be sweet because villain will make top set when you bink the flush) and work out how much money you think you can win when you hit those cards. We use the standard comparison of hand equity and pot odds to make the decision, except we look at
implied odds, not just immediate odds. With 65hh on T327hh, then against AA specifically you've got 9 flush outs and 3 more fours as outs for 12 outs total. Bear in mind that the flush would be "obvious", so villain won't necessarily pay off in full if a heart comes. 54o (OESD) would only have 8 outs, so it's less likely to hit, but fairly likely to get paid off when it does. A gutshot like J9 is even less likely to hit (4 outs), but it's so well hidden that you're almost guaranteed to get paid when the river brings an 8. With KQ (2 overs), you're actually drawing dead, so peeling with overcards against AA specifically would be terrible.
An additional wrinkle, but something you should always consider when calling with a weak draw, is not just the implied odds of getting paid when you hit, but also the potential opportunity for you to make a successful bluff when you miss. Players will often call (float) on the flop with a weak hand like a gutshot or an overcard + backdoor flush draw not just because they might hit their gin card, but because they will often get a chance to steal the pot by bluffing. If everyone played NLH according to direct pot odds, you'd have to fold flush draws on the flop, because you often don't get the right price. No one folds draws on the flop. You call because you think you can win the pot often enough to break even whether you make your hand or not.