Hey Riverrat92 here with my first post on 2+2

I just moved to Las Vegas not to become a poker pro, but the have the goal to eventually be there!

I started out playing 1/2 live and loved it.
Ive been playing for about a year live total with about 4 months of daily online play.

LIVE is my favorite, considering the value of people donk betting more and less grinders.


ALTHOUGH TO MY QUESTION.
I tend to always bet my double enders and flush draws when i hit flop, i am wondering if thats a profitable play considering fold equity and chances of hitting and building a bigger pot.

Is this a leak in my game or do you believe this is a profitable play? considering when i do hit i get max value everytime.

-River_rat92

Its definitely not profitable to bet draws, in and of itself, because most draws miss - unless you're a really talented post-flop player and can steal away the pot on some of your missed draws.

It is a good idea to bet draws, though, because then when you hit them your hand is very well disguised.

So you kinda have to pick and choose which ones to bet. Usually I'll bet the draws that also offer me a plan B.

For example, You have AQ of hearts and the flop comes

8h - 10h - Jc

to give you a nut flush draw. This is one that I would bet, and bet heavily. Why? If the flush draw misses, I can probably still win at showdown if an Ace or a queen hits, and a 9 would make a straight (which may or may not be a good thing for me).

On the other hand, if I have 8c - 9h, and the flop comes

7c - 10h - 2c

This one I check through in hopes that I get to see a free turn, because if my draw goes bad I have very little chance of winning at showdown even if I hit running two pair.


These two examples are both rather obvious in terms of why I'm betting one and checking the other, but that's the basics of how I decide to bet or check my draws.

Thank you! i agree of what you said, i believe thats how i dwindle when i keep betting my draws to much not considering my back up plan.

Question . if im original raiser does that change anything? should i c bet?

If i cant get away without checking is calling an option, depending on bet sizing?

Ahh I lost my free money aggro playing an inside str8 FD otf today HU OOP. He had AA.
Dont play like a hero your first day back @ poker & dont do this ^^^ its suicide
Unless you have good attention good concentration good skill to have,a,read here

Cbetting as pfr im cbetn almost 8o % of the time but it always
Always just as everything else, is dependant.
Everything is about adjusting. To table dynamics, players in the hand,
Stack sizes, player type,past history between players, percieved image, EDIT::ect, etc, goes
Into whether or not to bet

Edit: dont understand second q

I think that the opposite is true. Most people bluff based on their own cards and are very predictable. On wet boards their range is almost entirely semi-bluffs. On dry boards their range is almost entirely value hands.

I'm virtually positive that you cannot demonstrate that bluffing is profitable unless Villains are folding.

I think way too many people chose to bluff purely based on their cards, "have a flush draw must bluff".

I'd much rather bluff in this situation than the other. You have a hand:
1. Too weak to call a bet, so it's worthless if it's not a bluff
2. Not a problem with having to fold it if raised
3. That has six outs to the stone-cold nuts
4. It's a flop that's much less likely to have connected with the Villain so you should get many more folds

I like to bet draws as a sort of semi-bluff since I don't like to make pure bluffs

If you are going to make questionable bets, it's best to have some outs. So this is why I bet draws sometimes.

Just out of interest where do you play? We sadly booked Circus Circus one year and was surprised to one of the Chinese born pokers pro's at the table most days. Didn't quite understand why he picked Circus Circus until I had a play and saw the idiots that sat down at that table lol. He must have made a packet as he was always well stacked every time we saw him.

Always betting draws is bad. Never betting draws is bad. The correct strategy is somewhere in the middle.

pm4ji, but shouldn't that be 8 outs? (i.e. any jack or six?).

or am i confused?

thanks

Any jack or six that is not a club

of course (duh!)

thanks

The best time to semi-bluff bet/raise is in position and against few, preferably 1 opponent. The value of the semi bluff comes from the combined fold equity + the equity of your draw. Example, a flush draw on the flop with 2 cards to come is roughly 35% to hit.
If your opponent folds 20% of the time to your flop bet/raise your combined equity is now 55% which makes it a profitable play. The Hypothetical fold equity decreases as the number of opponents, stacks and pot size increases.

Being in position is important because you need to see the turn and the river to have 35% equity, if it much harder to get a free card OOP when you don't hit on the turn, or even IP vs multiple villains, now you have to decide, with less equity if you are going to double barrel and put more money in behind.
That compounds the situation when the semi-bluff does not work they still want to shovel their chips in on the next street, the villain(s) said we don't believe you by calling and you respond with FU I missed and am still shoving and get called and are in bad shape.
In general, especially in multi-way pots, when opponents let you draw cheap, and at a good price, you should. You want to keep your Implied odds as high as possible.

Here are 2 good threads to read from LLSNL that show how betting a draw at the wrong time turns a +EV situation into a -EV situations.

This shows how Check/Raising a draw as a semi bluff OOP, even against 2 opponents, can be bad:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...s-oop-1499186/


This thread shows how building a pot even IP with a semi bluff can lead to tough spots when fold equity is low
Hero here made a not so great raise preflop, fired on the flop with a good draw and is now in a tough spot on the turn once being called, he ships when villain is basically never behind and never folding.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...-turn-1499641/
read DGIHarris's post in this thread.

Also check out these 2 threads:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...-draws-476434/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...ively-1318597/

U da man nice post

yes bet you're draws to build pot and take lead in the hand is typically a good thing