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 06-22-2012, 06:54 AM #1 grinder     Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 463 Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved? \$235 live mtt blinds 800/1600 200 ante hero = 25,000 villian = covers hero button and bb both have less than 15k stacks sb was away from table and his hand was mucked fold to villian in CO he opens to 4500 there is 8900 in chips in pot when action is to hero hero has a6o and shoves After running ranges in stove i have appropriated his opening range to be 22+,A2s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,A2o+,KT o+,QTo+,JTo which equates to 29.4% I appropriate his range for calling my allin shove to be 55+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo which equates to 10% of his range Also I believe that the B and bb's calling off range is 99+,AQs+,AQo+ which is 5.1% How do I calculate exactly if this is a profitable shove. I know it is close but I could use some insight on the math equation breakdown. What is the bottom of everyone's range is for shoving here given the parameters given. Much thanks for any input ~FF Last edited by fullyfocused; 06-22-2012 at 07:01 AM.
06-22-2012, 09:23 AM   #2
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: ithaca
Posts: 5,046
Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by fullyfocused How do I calculate exactly if this is a profitable shove. I know it is close but I could use some insight on the math equation breakdown.
How many chips will you have if you fold? How many chips will you end up with, on average, if you jam? Which of the two numbers is bigger?

 06-22-2012, 09:32 AM #3 centurion   Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 164 Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved? What is the payout structure and # of players remaining?
06-22-2012, 10:36 AM   #4
grinder

Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 463
Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by yaqh How many chips will you have if you fold? How many chips will you end up with, on average, if you jam? Which of the two numbers is bigger?
Yea I get that. When i did the math it showed that it was a profitable shove. However the equation was incomplete as I didn't include that the B and BB would wake up with a call off range about 1/20 times each. That would mean that I would have to run numbers on what my equity would be against what their approximated range is and im not sure that i would be doing it correct. Is their any sort of a calculator/tool where you can put in your hand vs what several villains ranges are?

06-22-2012, 10:38 AM   #5
grinder

Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 463
Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by muuuuuuufasa What is the payout structure and # of players remaining?
It was approx 1450 players paying about 165 spots. This hand was in level 9 with about 500 players remaining

06-22-2012, 10:40 AM   #6
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: ithaca
Posts: 5,046
Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by fullyfocused Is their any sort of a calculator/tool where you can put in your hand vs what several villains ranges are?
yea, pokerstove does this, if i understand you correctly

Last edited by yaqh; 06-22-2012 at 10:47 AM.

 06-22-2012, 10:56 AM #7 grinder     Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 463 Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved? Ok maybe i needed to word that differently. I can run what my equity is vs all of their ranges sure but that doesn't help me. The b and BB will only go allin 5% of the time and the hj villian will only call off approx 33%. Poker stove does not take this into account their are other variables at work here. Do you understand what I am saying? If you know something I dont please enlighten me as this is why i created this thread because I dont know how to do the math. Please post a screenshot or explanation as to what the answer you came up with.
 06-22-2012, 11:19 AM #8 Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: ithaca Posts: 5,046 Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved? Ah, ok, gotcha. Yea, I'd imagine something like CREV can do this for you, but it's not too hard to get more-or-less right yourself by considering all the possibilities. I don't actually understand the situation. What position is Hero in exactly? Did you mean to say Villain's in the hijack? Anyway, it's something like If you fold, you have 25k chips. If you jam, you have (25k+8.9k)*(chance all opponents fold) + (50k + blinds) * (equity versus villain) * (chance just villain calls) + (chance villain and button calls) * ((equity vs both opponents) * (blinds + 3*15k) + (equity vs just villain) * (20k)) etc. The 20k in the last line is size of the side pot. Anyway, you just have to include all the possibilities. As a check, make sure all the "chances" add up to 1.
 06-22-2012, 12:26 PM #9 veteran   Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 2,378 Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved? If villain is cut-off and you are not the button or a blind, something is screwy. Anyway, assuming villain is highjack, H, you have to consider several possibilities of who will call you as Yagh suggested. Assuming that opponents call iaw your estimates, we have the following call probabilities ( some simplification is used): Call Combo Probabilities (to 2 decimal places) H only: Prob = 0.10 * (1-0.51)^2=0.09 H and one other: P = 0.10 *2*0.949*0.051 =0.01 H and 2 others: P = 0.10 * 0.051^2 =0.00 No H and one other: P =0.90*2*0.948*0.051=0.09 No H and two others = 0.9 * 0.051^2 =0.00 No callers: P = 0.9*0.949^2=0.81 So, from a practical point of view, you need to consider only H calling with probability of 0.09, no H and one other with probability 0.08 and no callers with probability of 0.81. For each of these cases you can find your card equity using Poker Stove. The EV equation in terms of chips, has the following form: EVc = Sum [Pr(Call Combo k) *(EV|combo k)] For example, for the case of H only, your card equity is A6o vs 55+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo, which equals 33%. The amount you will win if only H calls is 25,000 + 8,900 = 33,900 or you wlll lose your stack of 25,000, therefore: EVc|H only calls = 0.33 * 33,900 – 0.67*25,000. With 500 players still in the tournament, you need not have to do an ICM calculation.
 06-22-2012, 06:00 PM #10 grinder     Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 463 Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved? villian is in hj. I mistyped that in the original post.
 06-22-2012, 06:02 PM #11 grinder     Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 463 Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved? Thanks for the insight fellas. What is the bottom of your shipping range here? Just curious
 06-22-2012, 09:44 PM #12 centurion     Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: State of Confucius Posts: 168 Re: Am I doing this poker math problem correctly? Should I have 3bet shoved? But wouldn't the number of chips of the villain matter with respect to his range of pre-flop initial raises? If he is playing big stack bully with 50K for instance his range is much larger than you mention. Two of the players (the ones with 15K) are in shove mode with almost "quality" hand since they are at less than 10 BB left. You still have 15 BB left, so you are in danger, but can still wait around for a better spot. Not saying that shoving with A6 is not a good move, just saying that you have a choice in this situation. If you only have 10K left, there is no choice.

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