Originally Posted by AADYNASTY
Thanks for the input. I'm familiar with pokerstove and got the same equity as you did..but I think this was a spot that came down to our pot odds vs the chances against us getting there. I'm confused with your first part and how that factors into the decision though.
Are you saying the 2.62-1 ratio I got for against winning is wrong and 1.08-1 is the right number, or are the chances of us getting there and the odds against us winning not the same thing? If its not then yeh it would be a fold because the odds against us winning are > the pot odds we have in this spot.
Your 2.62:1 number is totally wrong, because it's only estimating the chance of you getting there on the next street. But you have 2 streets to get there, right, because you're going to be all in if you call. The easiest way to calculate the chances with 2 streets is like this, assuming your chance to draw in 1 card is X:
2 street chance = 1 - (1-X)(1-X)
this is an approximation but it's really close enough. I gave the exact calculation in my first response.
But my calculation isn't exactly right either because you can get there and still win. It's possible to calculate this exactly but there's hardly any point.