BU stack 100bb
BB stack 100bb


BU open 2bb
BB 3b 8bb
BU 4b 22bb
BB 5bai 91bb

91/200,5 = 45,4% FE needed

BB shove/(BB shove/BU stack/pot/dead SB)


If BU 4b 7% and calls 4,2% (JJ+,AQ+)
BU will fold 40%.
We need 45,4% FE

But we still have equity when called.

How to come up with a shoving range that are 0EV vs BU calling range?

combine the FE with the equity BB have when called.

I hope you guys understand what Im looking for.
Think its called something like goalseek.

I could run all the math with every hand possible to get there but that will take a while

Thanks!

bump

When he folds, our stack will be 122.5.
When he calls, our stack will be E * 200.5, where E is our equity against BU 4-bet/calling range.
In your example, if we don't consider blockers effects, our expected stack size when shoving would be 0.4*122.5+0.6*(E*200.5).
Then the EV of shoving is 0.4*122.5+0.6*(E*200.5)-92, because when we shove we risk 92bb.
The solution of the equation EV=0 gives E=0.3574, which means a hand with 35.74% equity against BU 4-bet/calling range would be breakeven.
I hope that helped

Thank you very much!! this help a lot

The thing is that here are two unknown variables, fold equity and equity of our hand. Obv our task has infinite number of solutins unless you know exactly how often V folds or what is his calling range.

I suspect you used wrong formula for FE needed in first post. It should be 91/(91+32). But it is for hands with no equity.

You might find useful creating a calculator e.g. in Excel which shows EV for given FE and hand equity, it should be easy.

I was going to do that, but I dont have excel. I use googles versions of it.

I might share when Im ready and people with a bit more brain can check it so everything is right.

I dont know what exact % someone will fold. If I dont have a lot stats or proper reads, Im gonna use population reads.
This is more to help me to create ranges based on population.

I have my normal ranges but If I see most opp open 60%+ from button, has a high 4bet, I can expect my opponents to either fold to much or call too much vs my range. but I want to expand it.
Obv only shoving AA will always show a profit, but when you get down to AQ, TT I need something to help me, so I can see if im even close.
I dont think its a huge mistake if the assumption of their range is a little bit off.

Please tell me your thoughts on this and please share if you have another way of doing stuff like this.

Thanks in advanced!

MEV

You see dont overthink it. Always can stack off QQ+ AK late, often JJ AQs. AQo likely best 5b semibluff when you want to have any.
Really dont think that 3b/stack off range blind/btn is what makes our profit, there are more coolers we cannot control.