Hey guys, I was wondering whether or not I should 4bet/gii with AK SB vs BB.
Here's an example:
I open AKo from SB and got 3Bet by BB with 7% 3Bet.
I open to 2.5bb (pot 3.5bb) and get 3bet to 8 (pot is 10.5), I 4Bet to 18bb (pot is 26).
Lets assume he never calls my 4Bet, only pushes or folds:
He needs to defend 50% range of the 3bet, to not get exploited (correct me if Iam wrong).
When he folds:
I win a 10.5bb pot with 50% probability = 0,5 * 10.5 = 5,5bb
When he jams and I call:
So 50% of 7% range = 3.5% (AK, QQ+), AK have 39% EQ against that.
I think the formula is:
Chance of being pushed at (50%) * my EQ*(Total Pot - my call money (118bb)) - Villain's EQ * Money I loose when I call (82bb, because I've already put in 18bb) = EV of the call = 0.39*118-0.61*82 = 46 - 50 = -4bb
So the EV of this spot would be +1.5bb?

Is that correct?

the math seems correct; but you assume he never calls; and only goes all in; assuming he is bluffing half the time. but him defending his 3bet doesn't mean he has to go all in;

if you remove QQ then you get 37.86% Equity (Equilabs) which is about -6.28bb, which would give you negative 1.28bb from calling all in VS villain folding

i think ultimately you have to make the decision based on if you think he is going all in with anything less than QQ; unless you playing people who are very tight it is usually probably the correct call.

Re: 4Bet /jam with AK math question
the math seems correct; but you assume he never calls; and only goes all in; assuming he is bluffing half the time. but him defending his 3bet doesn't mean he has to go all in;

if you remove QQ then you get 37.86% Equity (Equilabs) which is about -6.28bb, which would give you negative 1.28bb from calling all in VS villain folding

i think ultimately you have to make the decision based on if you think he is going all in with anything less than QQ; unless you playing people who are very tight it is usually probably the correct call.

I agree with the last sentence in particular

I'd 4 bet bigger than 18 big blinds. AK is a monster bvb. Either you're gonna get lots of action from worse hands or you're printing money when the bb folds a lot.

7% 3b from BB or 7% 3b overall?

In this spot you should fold AK because its only -EV move so by eliminate that move your EV grow bigger.But if you raise 3bb he raise you 10 bb you 4 bet something like 23 bb then you need to call 77bb to win 123 so you getting good odds to call.

If you think calling all-in to a 5-bet is bad and you don't think he'll ever call a 4-bet then just flatting would be better with AK.

Chances are though that AK is good to get in there, unless you or your opponent is exceptionally tight.