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3b pot with fd 3b pot with fd

07-18-2017 , 08:07 PM
Hi,

Checking if my calculation is correct.
Shoving with ace high fd vs a bet
Blinds: 1500/3000/225
Hero: AhJs
Villain:

folds to hero
Hero raises 6450
sb 3b 15000
bb folds
hero calls

Flop: 3h5h7h
Pot: 35025

Villain bets 24k
Pot :59025

Say villain folds 40% of the time.
Effective stack 61845

.4x59000=23610

((96870)(.6))(.45)=26154

(-61845)(.6)(.55)=-20408

23610+26154-20408= 29356

Correct me if I've made a mistake.


Thanks
3b pot with fd Quote
07-18-2017 , 10:02 PM
You cant just say "say villain folds 40 percent of the time". Youd have to estimate what his range is when he bets 24k into 35k on a low wet monotone board and see how much of that range would fold to your shove.

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3b pot with fd Quote
07-19-2017 , 01:25 AM
I see what you're saying. What if he doesn't have a bet fold range?
e.g overpair with a heart or 99+,AxKh
How does this change how often villain folds to a shove?
3b pot with fd Quote
07-19-2017 , 01:37 AM
If he doesnt have a bet fold range, you have 0 fold equity and as a result, youll always be getting it in as an underdog.

Usually you test one extreme. In this case, youd calculate assuming you never have any fold equity and see if you still have a +ev shove. If its - ev, see how much fold equity you need in order to be breakeven/+ev. Then see the fe number and see if that was a realistic prediction taking into account villains range like i said in the previous post. This will usually help in making situations black and white.

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3b pot with fd Quote
07-20-2017 , 08:42 PM
Assuming the 40% estimate was based on a reading and analysis similar what updog suggested, the calculation is correct. For the pot odds and equity provided, it is a +EV shove without any fold equity. Hero needs fold equity of about 8% or higher to make the shove have higher EV than a simple call.

One difficulty with this type of analysis is that fold equity depends not only range and board but also on the pot and bet amounts. While a shove may result in the highest fold equity it may not be the raise size that maximizes EV.
3b pot with fd Quote
07-26-2017 , 01:51 PM
Thanks statmanhal
3b pot with fd Quote

      
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