Quote:
Originally Posted by Rei Ayanami
I wouldn't hedge this at all. His rating is completely bogus right now and an extreme longshot to be justified not just now but in the near future. More FIDE nonsense, nothing to see here.
Well, now that I looked at his USCF results and saw the Barber K-8, yeah, I agree the hedge was kind of silly.
At the time I was thinking that while he's obviously not actually 2600 strength right now, he might actually be 2450 strength, and if he posts a 2450 performance rating in a 9 round event now (with his K down to 10) he'll only lose 18 rating points. He's also young, so if he's "actually" 2450 strength now, and if he plays FIDE events sparingly over the next year, his rating might only drop to 2550 by the time his strength gets up to the same level and he stabilizes. If he never drops below 2550 again, and then his rating starts to go back up a year from now, it will be hard to argue he didn't "justify" the rating pretty well.
He did score 3/5 against GMs and 8/13 against IMs, in this span, too. Of course he's overrated now... but some quick improvement and sitting on the rating a little could possibly hide that.
On the other hand: 4/6 with a loss to an expert at the Barber K-8... maybe he ran a little hot to post that 2450 performance rating and is actually sub 2400 strength, and maybe he won't improve much in the near future. The rating is likely "bogus" enough that the hedge was pointless, you're right.