So the game is over. I won because my opponent blundered, but I feel like I was losing for pretty much every move after the position I posted in this thread. Here is a link to the game and my thought process.
Bird Opening Game
So, at move 8 I decided to play Re8 as per my previous discussion in this thread. I thought he would respond Nc3 (I would have), and again I didn't know what to do but continued with my plan of putting increasing pressure on e4 so I played b6 intending to fianchetto, but really I just lost tempo.
10. cxd5 surprised me, but I feel like I have to recapture. I thought he would play Nxc5 in response though.
11. Ne5 surprised me again and I decided to exchange because his knight on e5 looked menacing and I felt a little cramped.
12. ... Ng4 - I think this hurt me a lot. I evaluated Nd7, but again I "felt" cramped and Nd7 appeared to make that worse. In retrospect I think it is much better. I did not see his bishop move here.
13. Bd7 - I spent a LONG time on this move. I evaluated Re7, Re6, Rf8 and Bd7.
Re6 I eliminated because after 14. Qxd5 Qxd5 15. Nxd5 c6 16. Bxc6 I saw that Rxc6 loses to 17. Ne7+
Re7 I eliminated because 14. Nxd5 Re6 didn't look good.
Rf8 seemed ok, but ultimately Bd7 looked "easier", but I saw that I was going to be down a pawn. This is where I was when I posted that I thought I was losing badly.
16. ... Qxd5 is a mistake according to houdini. I didn't even consider Nxe5.
I also didn't think he would respond Qxg4. I thought he was going to trade queens and then take back his knight with the h pawn and I would get some chances with his two sets of doubled pawns.
17. ... f6 - I didn't know what to do so I wanted to activate my bishop. I also looked at h5 - Bf8
19. f5 - I didn't consider this response, but now I am going to try and dislodge his queen
20. Qg5 is not what I thought he would do. I thought he would retreat his queen with Qf2 or Qf3 and I was going to play Rf8 placing my rook inline with his queen. When he played Qg5 I didn't want to change any of my pieces in the center so continued with Rf8.
21. f6 - this scared the crap out of me as I didn't expect it and now he has an advanced passed pawn. I stared at this for a while, but I had been looking for potential checks in the previous positions (with my queen if I could get rid of the pawn on e3) so eventually I saw the Bh2+ winning move. I was really happy with this. From here it was a route.
I think I got pretty lucky in this game, even though houdini shows me as only a fraction of a pawn down I felt like I was much worse. I guess my active peices compensate for lack of material?
My online chess rating is now 1744, but I'm 6-0 so I think this is drastically inflated.