About 2%, maybe a little under.

That "fade Magnus, bet Toppy" is off to a good start BJJ. Nice writeup :-)

BJJ is a chess betting sharp man.

Most books won't even take his action!

And the ones that do, he causes major line movement!

Haha, Topalov wasn't actually supposed to BE the favorite, that was still supposed to be Magnus! Apparently I don't just move the betting lines, I MOVE REALITY!!! Or, you know, not...

As for round 1 recaps, if you want one with more actual chess content (rather than my meta-level "I don't understand any of the moves because I'm just a club level patzer, so let's talk about probability instead" approach), I've been really enjoying Colin McGourty's work over at chess24.com.

It really was uncharacteristic of Magnus. He probably should have found a better approach to g5 than what he came up with during that 30min think. Once he pressured Topalov into playing a series of inferior moves and he achieved an edge, he gave it all back immediately with e5, a coffee house move playing for tricks.

I really don't like the piece sac, but it did create a lot of activity.

13.dxc5 dxc5
Qxd8 Kxd8
Nxf7+

he should have an easy draw. 2 pawns for the piece, with a perfect pawn structure and black has 4 isolated pawns.

It's clear that isn't a great result with white so he went for more, and he actually achieved more if he would have played the very natural 17. Nxf8. That can't be recaptured because of Bh6 and White is clearly better, but it is trapped after the line:

16. dxc dxc
17. Nxf8 Qh3
18. Qxh3 Bxh3
19. g3

where white is up two pawns but his Knight is trapped. Still black won't be able to capture it for a while and will have to give up at least one pawn in doing so. plus white's pawn structure is intact, he has no real weaknesses, his dark squared bishop naturally develops and it connects his rooks in doing so.

That definitely could have been a position where white slowly outplays black and grinds an edge into a win.

All in all I thought it was a very entertaining first round, both for the casual viewer and for those who have higher and higher understanding. I think that will typically happen the more decisive games you have. I think in a tournament like this where there are no "spots" it could go one of two ways: 1.) ton of draws and +2 is good enough for shared first, 2.) players go deep into their prep and try for any edge they can achieve leading to lots of imbalances, more fight, and more decisive games. The latter clearly better for attracting new chess fans.

Woot! On air mention from Jen! She referred to me as "Our good friend Chess By The Numbers" in the broadcast, while sharing my numbers on the odds of a 5/5 round!!!

Awesome

Carlsen wins at blitz

Closer to bullet in the end.

Both players with ~10 seconds to make the last five or so moves, and Caruana makes a massive blunder on move 40.

I didn't realize it was time for this event again. And it's on Twitch now!

I am posting to subscribe to this thread.

That Giri - Grischuk game was amazing.

Well played.

Worth noting that Topalov had to play the top three players in the field (other than himself) in the first three rounds, and that if he manages to win today he could beat all three of them!

Gif of Magnus watching the Toppy-Naka game today, right after his game ended.

http://gfycat.com/GoodDenseAfricanjacana

Good look for Topy. Clear first place and now only has to face the scrubs!

The weakest of the 'scrubs' (MVL, who is in an okay shape) is only 79 live rating points lower than Toppy, which gives the latter a theoretical winrate of merely 61% in their game (something like 34% for the win, 54% - draw, 12% - loss). The edges are too thin, surprises may happen with 6 rounds to go.

LOL at #unstopalov

Wow

Is the moral of this story that Carlsen still thinks Naka is a joke?

It would be a perfect time for Hikaru to finally beat Magnus in a classical time control game... if the former didn't get Black both at Norway and here (in round 8). That's tough luck

Naka is beta around GOAT Carlsen. You see he notices a shadowy lurking figure nearby and goes to look up at him but somehow realizes it's The Chosen One before looking at him, and immediately darts his eyes back to the board.

hahaha Carlsen is a savage

Btw, the thing I dislike most about the rise of computer engines is how it completely ruins general chess commentary. These games are nearly unwatchable on chessbomb with the average patzer questioning how these 2800 guys are "missing" a good move by 0.3 at 5 ply or whatever. It's awful.