2022 Candidates Thread - Chess and Board Game Strategy

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2022 Candidates Thread

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06-13-2022 , 03:10 PM

grando1.0

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Only odds I've found out there so far. Ian at 11 seems worth a taste..?

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06-13-2022 , 06:30 PM

gregorio

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Looks like great odds for Hikaru compared to others I've seen where he's 4th favorite a bit back of Alireza.

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06-14-2022 , 02:26 PM

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

I think Hikaru has a relatively high ceiling - there's at least a plausible chance that his 2830 performance rating at the Grand Prix is actually reflective of his current playing strength, and that he'll keep it up at the Candidates - and at those odds that may be enough reason to count him as a good value bet.

Of course he also might make the Grand Prix look like a fluke, and play the way everyone expected a retired streamer to play, and get kind of crushed. But that's a normal risk on any longshot bet.

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06-14-2022 , 02:59 PM

All-inMcLovin

Wholesome Mod

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 49,538

grando,

I wouldn't put a freebet on Ian.

Dude is virtually gtd to finish bottom 2.

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06-14-2022 , 03:14 PM

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

I will push back on any claim that anyone is "virtually guaranteed" any finish. I think everyone in the field could finish in almost any spot and that this is a super wide open event. Not to say that there aren't favorites and underdogs, but there are no locks and nobody without hope imo.

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06-14-2022 , 03:30 PM

All-inMcLovin

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 49,538

I will push back on your push back.

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06-14-2022 , 06:46 PM

BobJoeJim

Tournament Director

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 11,200

Push push push push push

(I am growing more and more skeptical of Duda's chances as I work more on my event preview article, I just don't see any guarantees in this event)

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06-15-2022 , 01:41 PM

FstrThanLight

enthusiast

Join Date: Feb 2022 Posts: 52

Pile it in for Ding. He must be hungry given the difficulties he's faced. When in form he's close to Magnus.

If Nepo does not fall apart halfway through then kudos to him, nonetheless:

Spoiler:

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06-21-2022 , 09:01 PM

grando1.0

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Lol Fabi

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06-22-2022 , 07:47 PM

#10

gregorio

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Quote:

Originally Posted by All-inMcLovin

grando,

I wouldn't put a freebet on Ian.

Dude is virtually gtd to finish bottom 2.

Just glad to see I never got around to posting my facebook lock that Ding would win.

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06-23-2022 , 04:55 PM

#11

TimM

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https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=55...81&ref=sharing

Best comment:

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When you see a sexy ass walking by but then 3 little rats start yelling: Mom wait for us

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07-01-2022 , 02:25 PM

#12

lastcardcharlie

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Nakamura playing for the draw. What kind of BS is that?

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07-01-2022 , 02:39 PM

#13

All-inMcLovin

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 49,538

Quote:

Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie

Nakamura playing for the draw. What kind of BS is that?

Everyone is fearing Nepo now.

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07-02-2022 , 02:57 PM

#14

grando1.0

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Quote:

Originally Posted by lastcardcharlie

Nakamura playing for the draw. What kind of BS is that?

He's virtually locked out of first, but him getting second - and Magnus possibly dropping out - has him drawing live to getting in

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07-02-2022 , 02:58 PM

#15

grando1.0

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I'm also glad the forum talked me out of betting nepo

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07-02-2022 , 03:28 PM

#16

Kurus

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 114

Winning the candidates back to back is tougher than the actual world championship.

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07-03-2022 , 04:09 PM

#17

lastcardcharlie

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Quote:

Originally Posted by grando1.0

He's virtually locked out of first...

If he'd beaten Nepo then he'd be 0.5 behind going into the final round.

Whatever, it was a chickenshit play.

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07-03-2022 , 04:17 PM

#18

grando1.0

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Meh probably but Naka prepared the Berlin and he wasn't going to play the Ruy or Italian vs Nepo for a win after Nepo led e4

Chess960 one time!

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