Karjakin is a 1. E4 player and carlsen tends to defend it w spanish, that is also karjakins likely defense but when he is losing the match and magnus e4, then sicilan. When magnus d4, it will likely be nimzo family instead of slav that karjakin also plays.

Vs anand magnus scored 3 times, lost one, the rest draws, so if u bet 6.5 or so draws, 3 or more wins, magnus win, u won all three bets. I made two vs karjakin now, not including the daws bet. If magnus wins but not with 3 or more wins, i break even. If i win both bets, i get half of my lost clinton bet back, that was a bad 1.33x bet but 2 days before fbi.

Magnus to win is 1.2 or 1.18. Made the bet anyway but not a one i will repeat. I just feel aggressive enough to think karjakin should not be there, as no way he is strong enough and i would like him to become an example of losing heavily, and be the last time for such matches. The highest and 2nd should play, not vs a 1x luckbox.

If you "luckbox" your way through a 14round candidates tournament, you kinda deserve it

If you want a champion based solely on rating, then why even have a championship match?

One tournament is more luck than a rating. Rather see the two strongest playing than the top 1 vs top 9. This time it was double luck because karjakin is so good a defender, producing a nemesis situation.

So, i made a counter bet to buy out with -25% cost, that isnt too late even now and it is only 1.44x or so for magnus now, rather than 1.18x, though it is about the rapid and blitz ratings, karjakin rating better there, like top 4 or so. More luck with shorter times.