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Originally Posted by Heron
Is this a general problem like "I have unclear compensation and if I run out of ideas I'll be simply a pawn down" or do you think of something concrete?
I used to play the line with 4. Na3 and analysed it very deeply with Rybka (even testing virtually every legal move). After 4...b5 white at best gets his pawn back with an equal game and it is not even clear. Besides that I couldn't refute 4...Qd5 either. After castling on move 4, I couldn't refute the line with Nbd7 even though it was given as good for white in Informant 78 (latest game: Radjabov-Smeets, Corus 2009).
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This only proves that you can't refute 1...d5 and 2...Bf5 and that's not surprising because both moves are within reason. Instead of 3.c4 White should play 3.Bg2 and 4.O-O first and then choose between c4, d3 and b3 depending on Black's 3rd and 4th moves. The idea is to outplay him later in the game.
The slow version is known as extremely drawish ever since Botvinnik-Smyslov 1958. You can find thousands of games in the database and nobody could ever prove something, not even in the tricky moveorder starting with 1.b3 where white is a tempo up in many cases. In my opinion, every time when black manages to play d5, Bf5, e6 and c6 (London system reversed) and doesn't get punished for it, he has an absolutely equal game.
There is one line (pointed out by Larsen) where it doesn't work: 1. Nf3 d5 2. e3!? Bf5 3. c4 e6 4. Qb3 Nc6 5. cxd5 exd5 6. Qxb7 Nb4 7. Bb5!
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Why do you recommend 1.c4 when you have so much respect for the hedgehog?
1.c4 gives more options to deal with 1....c6. It also gives more options after 1...e6 as you can play the QGD exchange variation with Nge2. The hedgehog can be avoided with 2.g3 (there are games by Seirawan), but that doesn't give much of course.
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Right now I'm building a repertoire around 1.c4, but I never dreamed of opening advantage, only of interesting positions that I possibly understand better than most of my opponents. A few months ago I spoke about this with a FM who plays 1.c4 (and nothing else) since 30 years and after only a little persuasion he eagerly admitted that White has little reason to hope for an opening advantage after 1...c5, and there are lots of other good defences as well, of course.
Marin has a book coming out soon (vol. 2 of his series), so that will be interesting.
Very simple:
1. Nf3 Nf6 2. c4 c5 3. d4 cxd4 4. Nxd4 e5!
1. Nf3 Nf6 2. c4 c5 3. Nc3 e6 or d5
1. Nf3 Nf6 2. c4 c5 3. g3 b6 4. Bg2 Bb7 5. Nc3 e6 or g6
1. c4 c5 2. Nc3 Nc6 3. Nf3 e5 or Nd4 or Nf6 and if g3 then d5
1. c4 c5 2. Nc3 Nc6 3. g3 g6 4. Bg2 Bg7 5. Nf3 e6 or e5
In many cases black even has multiple options...and they are all safe! These variations are just the starting points for research of course, but if you follow them up with games on the highest level you will see that there is nothing. Well, the same could be said after 1.e4 e5 and black playing the Marshall Attack, but that is a different story.
My basic philosophy is this: If I want an equal game with white I play 1. d4 and 2. Bf4 and so on. All pieces will be on good squares with lots of play left and I am sure that I cannot run into a gambit or some trap. When I put up the effort to analyze many variations 20 moves deep they better give me at least a tiny advantage in return, otherwise it doesn't make sense. Since 1987 (Informant 48 or so) I am analyzing openings, even with computers (chess machine, Fritz 2 etc.), one of my findings made it to Informant 74 and two others got published by NiC, but I have not made any progress. 22 years later I am still at stage one: White has nothing. Capablanca was right!