This event took me by surprise, so I came to the chess forum to check what BJJ had posted about the GP contenders. Shockingly, nothing!

Tomashevsky is the early leader, the only player on +1 after 2 rounds, beating Jobava with Black. He's also the player with the most to play for - he's currently leading the GP and his closest rivals, Nakamura and Caruana, are expecting to qualify for the Candidates on rating anyway.

Official site

of course BJJ does have commentary on it here

https://chessnumbers.wordpress.com/2...rix-final-leg/

Sorry! The downside of this whole blogging thing is that I forget to also post the 2+2 versions like I otherwise would have. I mostly try to double post, but didn't get around to it on this one.

BJJ,

I very much enjoy your posts fwiw, but often don't remember to check your blog (should probably bookmark that now that I think about it). The double posts are a great reminder!

Really enjoying the blog, also good to have stuff on here too

Things are getting really interesting. Caruana is a huge favorite to win one of the open slots in the Candidates Tournament, but after Karjakin won again today there's an intense three way battle for the other spot. Tomashevsky, Karjakin and Nakamura each have better than a 30% chance at it by my numbers.

Also there's an intriguing situation brewing where, for the sake of maximizing Candidates Tournament equity, it might be strategically wise for Grischuk to intentionally lose to Nakamura in round 9. Grischuk won't reach the Candidates Tournament by finishing top two in the Grand Prix, but he currently projects to be 4th on the average rating list. Caruana is 1st and will qualify via the GP. Nakamura is 3rd. If Grischuk could propel Naka to 2nd in the GP (by losing) he could put himself at #2 on the "not already qualified in another manner" rating list.

Downside to the loss would be the loss of precious rating points and risk of falling behind someone else like Kramnik and still not getting in.

I would never advocate actually throwing the game, and it may or may not actually be +EV (the math appears close and complex). It's an interesting scenario to analyze though, particularly on a poker forum where more posters than average probably have an interest in game theory and EV analysis.

This just isn't MVL's tournament. He lost in 27 moves in a quiet QGD structure to Nakamura today. He's having a Radjabov-like free fall right now.

That's so 2013. We now use Aronian-like freefall.

Caruana and Nakamura are now officially Candidates!