I posted this one BGO but wanted to throw it up here for those of you that may not migrate.

It from one of my online games. It's actually my opponents play but I thought it was interesting since I would have played 24/20 23/22 without a lot of thought. I really liked my opponents play here (23/22 8/4*) and XG++ says these are top two but the equity difference is really close (.002% on XG++ eval).

My question to the forum is what would you have done here and why. I love the hit here but wouldn't have made that move myself. What's the right idea here?

The bold play wins more singles, but loses more gammons. So in a match it depends on the score which one you choose. In a money game it depends on whether you are the better player.

First I would sum up the position then decide on the best move.

Black has more men back and is behind in the race. White can run into the outfield either escaping or forcing Black to give up outfield control by hitting.

23/22 24/20 goes for an advanced anchor when you are behind in the race. Usually not a good idea.

23/22 8/4* gives you a chance to anchor and to launch an attack. It would seem to give you the best chance rather than drifting into a 3 point game. This would be my choice.

Complementing Grant's post: White can develop quite a bit next roll so hitting is a must (tempo play?).

Playing passively here really doesn't seem the right idea.

Saw this over at BGO, but did not get a chance to reply.

This is a close decision, so let me begin with something I’m relatively confident about, and then I’ll venture into speculation.

I start by making the anchor on the 23pt. It may seem obvious to many, and not worthy of discussion, but I don’t think it’s a slam-dunk. I see some merit in an alternative no one has mentioned, O = Outer (8/7 8/4*). Still, I prefer the anchor as a little bit of insurance against jokers. White has 10 checkers in the zone, so I don’t want to get caught in a blitz.

After that, I am somewhat ambivalent about the 4. Like White, Black also has 10 checkers in the zone. Plus, the 8pt and 2pt cannot be part of the same prime. These are arguments for hitting. On the other hand, once Black starts an attack, he will find it difficult to fill-in the triple gap on his 3pt, 4pt and 5pt before White effects an escape. In the process, probably Black will be hit and/or lose his midpoint.

With the more passive U = Up (24/20, 23/22), Black may still be forced off his midpoint very soon.

OTB, I would fiddle around for a while, and then make a somewhat arbitrary choice depending on my mood! Today, I’ll opt for the safer non-hit.

Late note:

Nick’s rollout over at BgOnline has playing up, 24/20 23/22, tied with hitting and making an anchor, 23/22 8/4*.

I would hit for sure. Opponent has his final back checker high in our board and we've made the two point. These signs point to attacking as being right, especially considering that you can make the 22 with either play

An odd position. Over the board I would have played 23/22 and 24/20 without a lot of thought, just as RealNick said in his original post. Breaking the 8 to hit loose is usually a mistake in early positions.

According to the rollouts people are quoting, the two plays are about even here. I suspect the presence of the 2-point is the key that makes the hit a plausible play.