Hello,

Below is (hopefully) a position that appeared in a moneygame session between two of my friends. They are rather good at the game, better than i am but noone of us understands the take decision of xg. Is there anyone who can help us?

thanks

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/3851/ulibasty.png


Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 74,76% (G:2,68% B:0,03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25,24% (G:1,56% B:0,02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75,07% (G:2,49% B:0,03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24,93% (G:1,84% B:0,04%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0,5064, Double=+1,0155

Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0,6391 (-0,2363)
Double/Take: +0,8754
Double/Pass: +1,0000 (+0,1246)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout:
1646 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98726071
First 3 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply
Remaining moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
Confidence No Double: ±0,0039 (+0,6352..+0,6430)
Confidence Double: ±0,0063 (+0,8691..+0,8816)

Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%

Duration: 1 minute 01 second

Threats, not many gammons in the air, not a huge race disadvantage, one less checker stacked on this 6/better likely distribution down the road.

66/11/61 only terribad rolls coming up from white's point of view, and even then rareish white loses a gammon.

Under the general rule that if its close you should err towards taking, think you have to grab the cube here with so much potential equity and slim chances of gammons.

Thank you Wamy

yes, no gammons in the air is a good point!

At least for me its difficult to grasp the positive aspects of whites position.
Seeing all those pointing, pick + pass and lose hitting plays, i guesstimate only 7-8/36 games for white... at most.

Baduck, do you mean that it's Black's turn to play, therefore it's White's take/drop decision?

Hi uberkuber

yes, black to play. Correct action according to Xg is d/t and not d/p like in the game.The take is a bit difficult for me

Check out this one...take or pass for white? why?

http://www.bgonline.org/forums/webbb...es;read=125612

haha. don't drop