Originally Posted by RealNick
In situation 1 this is almost always a drop from what I know about match cubes. Match equity table assumes both players are of equal strength and if he's got anything over 50% of game winning chances (even 50.01%) it is correct to drop, at which point it will be 3-3 and you both will have 50% MWC.
If the score was 4-3 then you would be right, because you would be risking 50% mwc to gain 50% mwc and 50/(50+50)=50%.
Here you are only risking being down 4-3cr (mwc 32%) so 18/(18+50)~26% (of course gammons will push the take point upwards)