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Old 04-07-2012, 07:49 PM   #1
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Two Bad Doubles In Matchplay

I play 5 point matches.

Match 1
I am leading 3-2, opponent makes a premature double (he has an edge but it is small). He is doubling me into game. I take this 99.99% of the time, yes?

Match 2
Opponent is leading 0-2 and makes a premature double (he had an edge but it is small). I take but if he wins he is 0-4 and if I win I am 2-2. It seems to me I should redouble and I do. Mistake or not?
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Old 04-07-2012, 08:32 PM   #2
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Re: Two Bad Doubles In Matchplay

In situation 1 this is almost always a drop from what I know about match cubes. Match equity table assumes both players are of equal strength and if he's got anything over 50% of game winning chances (even 50.01%) it is correct to drop, at which point it will be 3-3 and you both will have 50% MWC.

In situation 2 I don't think this is an instant redouble. I believe it depends on the position but I'm not as sure as I am in situation 1.

of course, as I mentioned before, a standard match equity table assumes players are of same strength but if you know the opponent and he consistently misplays certain positions then who knows...
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:46 PM   #3
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Re: Two Bad Doubles In Matchplay

If your opponents double is premature then you should always take!
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Old 04-07-2012, 10:51 PM   #4
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Re: Two Bad Doubles In Matchplay

Quote:
Originally Posted by RealNick View Post
In situation 1 this is almost always a drop from what I know about match cubes. Match equity table assumes both players are of equal strength and if he's got anything over 50% of game winning chances (even 50.01%) it is correct to drop, at which point it will be 3-3 and you both will have 50% MWC.
If the score was 4-3 then you would be right, because you would be risking 50% mwc to gain 50% mwc and 50/(50+50)=50%.

Here you are only risking being down 4-3cr (mwc 32%) so 18/(18+50)~26% (of course gammons will push the take point upwards)
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Old 04-07-2012, 11:12 PM   #5
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Re: Two Bad Doubles In Matchplay

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Originally Posted by Al Mirpuri View Post
Match 2
Opponent is leading 0-2 and makes a premature double (he had an edge but it is small). I take but if he wins he is 0-4 and if I win I am 2-2. It seems to me I should redouble and I do. Mistake or not?
It depends, but quite possibly. You shouldn't just auro-recube any position for sure. You can still win about 16% of the time trailing 0-4. No reason to throw that away needlessly. You should be recubing quite agressively of course and sometimes even as an underdog.
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Old 05-15-2012, 11:30 PM   #6
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Re: Two Bad Doubles In Matchplay

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Originally Posted by mute View Post
If your opponents double is premature then you should always take!
+1
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