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Take or Drop?
06-11-2015
, 07:53 AM
Hi All,
What are your thoughts on this one:
Big take, big drop, or not much equity lost either way?
3u0GAEC2bUMAMA:
ARkAAAAAAAAA
What are your thoughts on this one:
Big take, big drop, or not much equity lost either way?
3u0GAEC2bUMAMA:
ARkAAAAAAAAA
06-12-2015
, 02:10 AM
Thank you Robertie, exactly and completely correct.
I almost fell of my chair when I saw this was a take. Now that i see your explanation, i realise that a minute of thought might have got me close to the correct response.
Apologies, but I am only using the 2-ply evaluation here, but it gives you the idea. Basically, yes, gammon chances are negligible for either side. And it it seems as simple as that: if he throws a six in the next two or three throws, we lose pretty much 100% of the time. If he does not, it seems most of the time its a redouble / drop and we win almost 100% of the time. So no trickery in the numbers.
There is some trickery if I tweak the positions.
Just moving white's back checker forward 2 pips:
Or moving black's forward most checker back 2 pips:
Is its feasible that anyone would tell the difference between these three positions OTB?
Bewildering game...
I almost fell of my chair when I saw this was a take. Now that i see your explanation, i realise that a minute of thought might have got me close to the correct response.
Code:
Evaluator: Contact
Win W(g) W(bg) L(g) L(bg) Equity Cubeful
static: 0.703 0.061 0.001 0.060 0.002 +0.405 +0.644
1 ply: 0.713 0.057 0.002 0.060 0.003 +0.422 +0.609
2 ply: 0.706 0.068 0.002 0.053 0.002 +0.427 +0.613
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.427
0.706 0.068 0.002 - 0.294 0.053 0.002
Cubeful equities:
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1. Double, take +0.656
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.344)
3. No double +0.613 ( -0.044)
Proper cube action: Redouble, take
There is some trickery if I tweak the positions.
Just moving white's back checker forward 2 pips:
Code:
Evaluator: Contact
Win W(g) W(bg) L(g) L(bg) Equity Cubeful
static: 0.680 0.057 0.001 0.064 0.002 +0.353 +0.584
1 ply: 0.691 0.054 0.002 0.066 0.003 +0.369 +0.549
2 ply: 0.678 0.065 0.002 0.059 0.002 +0.362 +0.543
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.362
0.678 0.065 0.002 - 0.322 0.059 0.002
Cubeful equities:
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1. No double +0.543
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.457)
3. Double, take +0.501 ( -0.041)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (8.3%)
Code:
Evaluator: Contact
Win W(g) W(bg) L(g) L(bg) Equity Cubeful
static: 0.682 0.051 0.001 0.066 0.003 +0.348 +0.580
1 ply: 0.685 0.047 0.001 0.067 0.003 +0.349 +0.530
2 ply: 0.686 0.058 0.001 0.060 0.002 +0.370 +0.552
Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity +0.370
0.686 0.058 0.001 - 0.314 0.060 0.002
Cubeful equities:
2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
1. No double +0.552
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.448)
3. Double, take +0.523 ( -0.029)
Proper cube action: No redouble, take (6.1%)
Bewildering game...
