The score is tied, 2-away/2-away, in your match. Each player has won 1 point in a 3-point match. That is a very special score. Although it is still debated, most players believe it is critical to get a cube in before you lose your market. As Kit Woolsey puts it, if you have even one market-losing sequence in the next exchange, you should double now.
The reason XG is flagging both players with cube errors is because both players have at least 1 roll and reply that would cause them to lose their market.
Woolsey's reasoning is this: He won't fail to cube. He won't ever lose his market. When he wins, it will always be on a 2-cube. When he wins, he will always win the match.
If you delay cubing, however, and manage to lose your market, not all of your wins will win the match. If Kit can get out with only a 1 point loss, he will trail by 2 in the Crawford game. At "gammon-go" his match winning chances can be found in a MET. Kit will win the match something like 32% of the time.
Add it up. If you and Kit are equally likely to win a game, Kit will cube and win the match half the time in the first game. If Kit gets out with a 1 point loss in the other half of the games, he will still win the match 32% from there. Overall his MWC will be 50% + 50% * 32% = 66%. This is an artificial calculation based on the assumption that all of your cubes will be late, but it makes the point.
Clearly, you are better off giving Kit a cube he must take in the first game. Then you and Kit will both have MWC = 50%.
For this reason, many/most players autocube when tied at 2-away as soon as they can. You read that right. When a player loses the opening roll, he cubes immediately on the 2nd roll. When he wins the opening roll, he cubes on the 3rd roll.
Some experts have evolved techniques of extracting a bit more equity by delaying this cube. Most of it has to do with taking advantage of players who do not understand this score, and so end up losing their market. It is a risky strategy, however, because there is usually a joker or two on almost every roll that could cost you your market. That's why many "regular" players just autocube at the first opportunity.
If you search Google for "Kit Woolsey", "match", "cube", "2-away" you should be able to locate one of the several articles Kit has published on the subject. There are two three at at
Backgammon Galore! One I found is entitled
Two Points To Go. See also the discussion for the score "3-3 (2 away, 2 away)" in Kit's must-read article
Five Point Match.
Mike
Last edited by Taper_Mike; 02-10-2015 at 08:29 AM.