Hi all,

Interesting cube action imo in a 3 point match:

XGID=bBB-aAC-----dDA--c-e---AA-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:3:10

Black covers with 22 rolls, and white's fans are market losers, so this is a clear double.

The take seems close. White has nothing secured, but fair chances to anchor up. Black is short on builders for now, and will often fail to cover the 5, so I guess I would take.

No offensive, no development.

Most of the time you are rolling with two men up against 4 point board.

Even the little details like the extra builder from the 14 point and split back men are against you.

A gammon and you lose the match.

I'd drop. Looks pretty scary to me. What is the answer?

I drop this cube because of the match score and the crushing gammons. Let me just pass here and continue the match at 50% MWC.

Score is 0-1(3) -- Black is 3-away, White is 2-away.

This should be too good to double.

First of all, note that this is a big pass for money. If you mistook this for something close to a money take, you might find the following reference position useful:

Money game: White opens 5-2 and splits, Black rolls 5-5 pointing on both men, and White dances. Black should double and White has a pass. A big pass, but not a huge one.

Now take a look at the OP position -- this is stronger than the reference position by a good margin. While Black has slightly lower quality points made, his back checkers are split (which is a bigger improvement than it looks), he's diversified in White's outfield, and has his spare offensive checkers in (arguably) better spots. Also White has a third man back. So we can be certain this is a big money pass.

At the score, White has to be extremely cautious with the cube. After taking, his gammons are killed while Black's gammons will win him the match. And White has no recube potential. Thus White is miles away from a take.

The pass is so huge that Black should consider playing on for the gammon. Note that given the score characteristics, he's still going to have a cube even after most of his bad sequences. And when he gets a decent cube in anyways, he doesn't really regret playing on for the gammon despite getting a bad sequence. And there's tons of gammons here, obviously. So it's looking like too good.