I confidently clicked pass on this one based on the pip count difference, only to be told it was an error. I'm assuming that my even distribution tips the balance here, but is there a rule of thumb that applies?

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I also notice that when both sides are in bear-off, an Effective Pip Count appears. How is this calculated?

Any help appreciated.

In XG, try Analyze / Race Formulas...

EPC, Trice and Keith are all well regarded methods of estimating winning chances in a race. All three also attempt to account for wastage. Pick one and learn it.


As personal preference I like Keith, which probably gives the correct cube action for about 90% of positions. Trice results are similar. EPC is the best of the bunch, but the most difficult to use at the table in my opinion.

By the way, EPC refers to Effective Pip Count. This represents the real pip count plus an estimate for the wastage in the position. XG has a database of bearoff positions with the corresponding wastage. So EPC = Pip Count + Wastage.

Here are the rules for Keith ....

• Start with the raw pip count
  
• add 2 for each checker more than 1 on the ace point
  
• add 1 for each checker more than 1 on the 2 point
  
• add 1 for each checker more than 3 on the 3 point
  
• add 1 for each gap on the 4, 5 and 6
  
• For player on roll add 1/7 of pip count (round down)

Once the above is calculated for each side

Keith Number = Adjusted Count for Player on Roll – Adjusted count for opponent

• If Keith Number < 2 then DROP
  
• If Keith Number Btwn 2 and 3 then REDOUBLE/TAKE
  
• If Keith Number Btwn 3 and 4 then DOUBLE / TAKE
  
• If Keith Number > 4 then NO DOUBLE / TAKE
  

Applying to your position:

Blue = 47 + 12 (1 point wastage) + 1 (2 point wastage) + 1 (gap on 4 point) = 61

61 + 1/7 is almost 69 = adjusted Keith count for Blue

White = 64 + 2 (1 point wastage) + 1(2 point wastage) = 67

So Keith metric is 2 implies redouble / take.

Brilliant, thanks for that.

wow that's actually an easy formula to learn. thanks

haha awesome name 9/11

what's the fastest way to get 1/7 of the pip count of the person on roll? is there a method for this?

Divide by 7 and throw away the remainder.