Analyzed in Rollout
Cubeless Equities +0,421 +0,834
No double: +0,567 ±0,008 (+0,559..+0,575)
Double/Take: +0,499 (-0,069) ±0,012 (+0,487..+0,511)
Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,433)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 12,0%
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96302452
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
OTB I was sure this is a double, probably costing 0.050 - 0.100 if I don't double now.
What really shocked me is that I was about 0.150 off in my estimations.
As I already said - I played out the position, but even still, I wasn't convinced, so I decided to post this on three forums (DailyGammon, BgOnline, TwoPlusTwo) to see two things:
1. How other players feel about doubling this
2. Will I get some passes to make doubling practically correct
Here are combined results:
ND/T 6 votes
D/T 13 votes
D/P 1 vote
1. Most players doubled this. And I can't blame them/us. It still looks like a double to me.
2. Not enough passes to make doubling practically correct.