The race is nearly a tie, so hitting and escaping does three good things:
- Gain racing advantage
The risk is not as high as your phrase “double direct shot” suggests. Typically, a double shot starts at 20/36, and goes up from there. In this case, however, White must enter before he can hit, so this is more like a double indirect shot. White can hit with 11 21 31 15 25 35, only 11 numbers.
Plus, you should consider that the risk is double-edged. When White fans, you will have a direct shot to pick up a second blot. Otherwise, even when he enters, so long as White misses the return shot, you will have become a large favorite.
Now, consider the POH alternative. When White dances (16/36), you will still be trapped behind his block, albeit, with a triple indirect shot at his outfield blots. Don’t you prefer the position where you will have escaped?
And what if White enters (20/36)? Black will have gained little by his hit, as White will be able to clean up one or two of his blots, or else launch a counterattack. Worse, the race will still be close, and you will have missed a chance to send a second checker back.