Hi all, cash game, white owns the cube:



Here obv Black has to choose: hit and point the blot on his 2 point (8/2* 5/2) or escape and hit the blot on the 15 point (24/18*).

I thought that was better to hit and point, creating a new inner point and a 4-point home board, cutting white's roll, and potentially close out my opponent. I was not afraid of my rear man, because white has only a 4-prime and the isn't in good shape to close that man (in fact he has half roll after my hit)

Naturally I considered to hit his blot in his outfield, and escape at the same time, but exposing me to a double direct shot potentially very dangerous. Finally I considered more valuable hit and create a permanent asset in my home than escaping and hitting and being exposed.

But a 3 ply analisys says that's a 0.3 blunder. I rolled out and the error is a 0.2 blunder.

Why? I can't get the point.

Any help appreciated

The race is nearly a tie, so hitting and escaping does three good things:

1. Hit
2. Escape
3. Gain racing advantage

The risk is not as high as your phrase “double direct shot” suggests. Typically, a double shot starts at 20/36, and goes up from there. In this case, however, White must enter before he can hit, so this is more like a double indirect shot. White can hit with 11 21 31 15 25 35, only 11 numbers.

Plus, you should consider that the risk is double-edged. When White fans, you will have a direct shot to pick up a second blot. Otherwise, even when he enters, so long as White misses the return shot, you will have become a large favorite.

Now, consider the POH alternative. When White dances (16/36), you will still be trapped behind his block, albeit, with a triple indirect shot at his outfield blots. Don’t you prefer the position where you will have escaped?

And what if White enters (20/36)? Black will have gained little by his hit, as White will be able to clean up one or two of his blots, or else launch a counterattack. Worse, the race will still be close, and you will have missed a chance to send a second checker back.

To add to Mike's analysis, I'd add that your offensive structure is more suited to prime/contain than to attack/blitz (you don't have enough bullets to follow up your pointing hit when he enters). Thus, you're better hitting outside and trying to contain 2 checkers rather than 1.

Also, as Mike mentioned, you escape as a bonus.

Thanks to both. now my doubt is explained