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Where to Hit? Where to Hit?

08-30-2015 , 02:15 PM
Since yogiman is taking a break, here's an early game problem that has some interesting aspects:

Money game, center cube.

White - Pips 160

Black - Pips 159
Black to Play 5-3
Created with www.BGdiagram.com

What's the best play?

Why is it best?

I'll post my answer in a few days.
Where to Hit? Quote
08-30-2015 , 03:00 PM
I play 18/15*/10 by elimination.

The two candidate plays are
A) 24/21* 18/13
B) 18/15*/10

The A choice gains more ground in the race and saves a back man.
The B choice gains less ground (about 6 pips) but add a new builder, escape a back man as in choice A, keep the position very flexible and keep under threat the 21 blot, making life hard for opponent to re-enter and cover.

As usual we play the move that does more things.
Where to Hit? Quote
08-30-2015 , 05:02 PM
I would avoid 24/21* as it gives white a good 6 from the bar. Increasingly I try to give myself good 6's and make my opponent's 6's bad.

Therefore I have to hit 18/15* then reduce return hits and increase my checkers in the zone with 15/10
Where to Hit? Quote
08-30-2015 , 06:49 PM
the candidates are:
A) 24/21* 18/13
B) 18/15*/10

I prefer A (24/21* 18/13) for two reasons:
-It gains more pips in the race
-When we make play A somebody here pointed out that a 6 by our opponent hits us. But when we make play B we give opponent good 2's to make the 4 point. I prefer to get hit, as it is a temporary asset for our opponent because it gives us good 4's to hit back, while when he makes the 4 point it is a permanent asset for our opponent.

play A looks so obvious to me, that I am actually affraid the answer is B because of the Quiz Factor, but I stay with my answer A : 24/21 18/13
Where to Hit? Quote
08-30-2015 , 11:16 PM
I'd play 18/15*/10 to bring my checker closer to my home board as a builder: the resulting position is more versatile.
Where to Hit? Quote
08-31-2015 , 03:11 AM
Grunch.

There are only 2 reasonable choices that I can see, 24/21*, 18/13, or 18/15*, 15/10. Hitting in the home base is obviously more valuable, but that's the only advantage that move has. It builds a large tower on the 13 point, and doesn't leave much play afterwards. Playing the second move leaves us more flexible, with blots aiming at building a decent home board over the next few throws, as well as leaving the threat of hitting him on the 21 poit.

I play 18/15*, 15/10.
Where to Hit? Quote
08-31-2015 , 06:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robertie
Since yogiman is taking a break...
My pc is at my mother's place, but as she has several old age afflictions, she went to a retirement home recently, maybe for good. So there is little necessity to stay at here place, except for pleasing my ego and the huge number of viewers.

Other reasons are that I:
- only play against the bot since ages
- want to concentrate on cube decisions, though I prefer working on the problem thread a lot more
- study poker, and would also like to learn chess and lots more
- was not sure whether the top players would think that I give away to much information for free, though above quote suggests that this is not so much the case
- should give more time to romancing

In spite of all this all I am going to continue the threads, though at a lesser frequency.
Where to Hit? Quote
08-31-2015 , 12:37 PM
Normally, I would hit the most advanced checker (more pips back, preventing making a homeboard point), but the choice of 5s after that isn't that strong. I obviously discard 11/6 and also 13/8, because 18/13 looks clearly better, securing a back checker. So I guess that if I'm hitting the front blot, I would go with 24/21* 18/13.

However, in this case, I would prefer hitting the back checker and then continue to the 10-pt to add a useful builder for key points (bar, 5, 4). Also, after 18/15*/10, there are some good chances that I will be able to hit the other blot, unless White rolls a 2 or a 4. Even if he rolls a 4, he has to give up the 8-pt. That combined with the usefulness of the builder makes it my play.

18/15*/10
Where to Hit? Quote
08-31-2015 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yogiman
- should give more time to romancing
Go to a live Backgammon club and meet someone with similar interests - then she will be tolerant of your playing so much.

My wife Jackie and I played backgammon when we travelled through Asia and both became very good. She only stopped playing when I became super serious in studying backgammon. After she had not played for 6 years a couple from the backgammon club were visiting and wanted to play both of us. They played every day. Jackie agreed to play as long as she did not have to play me. Jackie crushed them! They were devestated and would not believe she had not played in 6 years.
Where to Hit? Quote
09-01-2015 , 07:10 AM
24/21* seems best hit. Then 21/16, 18/13, 13/8 all seem reasonable. I like 13/8. Lets your blots keep pressure on whites inner and outer boards.
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09-01-2015 , 07:56 AM
grunch: 24-21*, 18-13

No need to build the 4 pt as we are not behind in terms of home board development. The best hit is the 21 pt as that checkers goes back the furthest and also prevents opponent from making it next go if we pass on the hit. It leaves a direct shot on the 15pt whilst opponent is trying to re-enter from the bar. We also get to clear up the 18pt split checker. with the 5.

I think I understand this one! Famous last words!
Where to Hit? Quote
09-01-2015 , 03:24 PM
I will join the bandwagon for 18/15*/10. This leaves no meaningful direct return shot, brings another builder into the attacking zone, and anticipates future shots with the back man.
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09-03-2015 , 08:39 AM
I saw leaving the checker on 21 as a positive as it gives a direct shot on 15. Everybody else saw it as a negative as it gives villain a fly shot from the bar, making his sixes good.

This must be very bad if no-one else saw the glass as being half full.
Where to Hit? Quote
09-04-2015 , 12:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Al Mirpuri
I saw leaving the checker on 21 as a positive as it gives a direct shot on 15. Everybody else saw it as a negative as it gives villain a fly shot from the bar, making his sixes good.

This must be very bad if no-one else saw the glass as being half full.
I doubt very bad. I have the feeling that whichever way it turns out, the equity difference is not all that large.
Where to Hit? Quote
09-24-2015 , 05:46 PM
@Bill Robertie:

when will you post your answer?

You said in a few days, but it is three weeks now and I am interested in your analysis of this position.

I hope I don't sound demanding, I can understand that you are probably busy with other things, I am just curious to your thoughts on that position.
Where to Hit? Quote
10-25-2015 , 11:52 AM
Where to Hit? -- Solution

Black has two ways to hit in this position. He can hit and safety one blot with 24/21* 18/13, or he can leave the blot on the 21-point alone and hit in the outfield with 18/15*/10, creating a new builder in the process. What’s the right play?

The default play with this sort of choice is to hit the opponent’s inner-board blot – in this case, the blot on the 21-point. A hit on the 21-point gains more ground in the race and stops White from making an inner point quickly. Those are compelling reasons, especially since the other half of Black’s number plays reasonably well, running to the midpoint.

The alternative play, however, hitting and coming around with 18/15*/10, has a number of strengths which become apparent as you consider the position for a while. Take a look.

> Hitting on the 15-point gains almost as much ground in the race. One play gains 21 pips, the other gains 15 pips – not much difference.

> Going to the 10-point creates far more point-making numbers. After 18/15*/10, only 52 and 54 are non-constructive follow-ups. Everything else will make a good point next turn. After 24/21* 18/13 Black has many fewer good follow-ups.

> White’s blot on the 21-point is an asset but also a liability. If Black hits on the 15-point and White then enters with deuce-x, he can cover the blot and unstack. If he enters with 4-x, he covers the blot but at the cost of giving up the 8-point. With other numbers, the blot sits there as a target for next turn.

> Hitting on the 15-point leaves White with poor sixes from the bar. In the opening, being able to play a good six from the bar is a real asset. After Black hits on the 21-point, White can hit back on his 4-point with a six from the bar. After 18/15*/10, White’s small sixes (6-1, 6-2, 6-3) don’t do anything good.

> Hitting on the 15-point doesn’t stack any checkers. In the opening, you’re looking to unwind your stacks rather than add to them. Playing 24/21* 18/13 stacks another Black checker on the midpoint while White’s home board is weak. That’s not what you’re looking to do in the early stage unless circumstances are very unusual. White’s weak home board means you don’t need to play completely safe.

> Hitting on the 15-point leaves Black relatively immune from being hit back. This is a key point that’s easy to overlook. After 18/15*/10, Black has plenty of builders in play and his blots are tucked safely out of range. If White can’t hit anything, Black will be able to start making good points quickly. If Black is on the 21-point, however, White will have plenty of rolls to hit loose and keep Black from improving his position.

None of these points are decisive in themselves, but add them all up and you have a pretty convincing argument that 18/15*/10 is the right play.

-------------------------------------

Before leaving this position, let’s backtrack a little and take a look and White’s last move. Black opened the game with a 6-2, playing 18 and 11, and White then rolled 4-3, playing 8/4 and 13/10. What do we think of that?

This particular position is actually taken from the finals of a 1980 tournament, the Las Vegas Holiday Open. In those days, players got pretty creative in the opening. The idea was to slot key points, look for duplication, and don’t be in a hurry to split your back checkers. Barclay Cooke’s Paradoxes and Probabilities had been published just a couple of years before, and his ideas were still percolating in the minds of most players.

With those thoughts in mind, 8/4 13/10 looks like a pretty clever play. It slots a key point (the 4-point), duplicates threes, and leaves the back checkers alone. If you suggested the move in a chouette, you might not have won the team’s approval, but your suggestion would have been taken seriously.

Nowadays, however, with the benefit of years of coaching from Snowie and XG, we would dismiss the play pretty quickly. By playing 8/4. we’re slotting the wrong point in the wrong way. Players were pretty cavalier about slotting in the old days, but now our requirements for slotting are much more precise.

First Rule of Slotting: Slot the most valuable point available, the point that you really want to make. In the very early game, that means you want to slot the 5-point. The 4-point isn’t nearly as valuable, so plays where you correctly slot the 4-point are pretty rare. Remember, if you slot and then make the 4-point, your opponent still has a chance to anchor on your 5-point, negating much of the value of the 4-point.

Second Rule of Slotting: Slot from a stacked point, thereby achieving two goals at once. We like slotting the 5-point with an ace, because we unstack the 6-point at the same time. Slotting from the 8-point with a three is much less valuable, since we would strip the 8-point in the process. If we were thinking of slotting the 4-point, a slot with a deuce from the 6-point is much more likely to be right than a slot with a four off the 8-point.

Notice something else that happens when you slot from the 8-point. Playing 8/4 leaves the 8-point stripped, so although you still have two cover numbers for the slot, one of them breaks the 8-point, making the slot much less effective.

Third Rule of Slotting: Make sure there isn’t a safer but still good alternative. Simply playing 13/9 24/21 with 4-3 (the current “book” move) creates a well-balanced position with much less risk. Black’s twos are nicely duplicated, and very few numbers hurt White much. A good position with small risk always beats a good position with a bigger risk.

This rule, by the way, yields another reason why we are much more likely to slot the 5-point with an ace than to slot the 4-point with a deuce. In the early game, there aren’t many great alternatives to slotting the 5-point with a random ace. In most positions, the other choice with an ace will be 24/23, which is a perfectly reasonable play but not much more. On the other hand, the alternative to slotting the 4-point with a deuce is usually 13/11, which is a really good deuce. It unstacks the midpoint and creates a new builder for the 5-point and 7-point, all at very little risk. With a play like that available, there’s no reason to take a big risk to slot an inferior point.
Where to Hit? Quote
10-25-2015 , 08:57 PM
Really informative post, thank you.
Where to Hit? Quote
10-26-2015 , 11:15 AM
Quote:
Before leaving this position, let’s backtrack a little and take a look and White’s last move. Black opened the game with a 6-2, playing 18 and 11, and White then rolled 4-3, playing 8/4 and 13/10. What do we think of that?
i don't think that it will surprise and hope people don't get tired, when I say that I am not wholly averse of white's move, in case he is the better player. It's looking really bad what he is doing, however, no points are being made yet. For me it has less to do with slotting a 4-point, than creating action. Though admittedly this one is a little awkward.
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