Quote:
Originally Posted by RolldUpTrips
So I've read the thread/spoilers and know the move is wrong, but I want to sidetrack a bit, if that's okay, and discuss 23 and 9 in the last position. We already have 3 men back and a solid, but very flat, 4-prime. Meanwhile he currently has a direct number to escape. I feel like the upside of making the back is absolutely immense. While it really sucks to have him jump+hit, jumping is pretty bad for us already.
Having said all this, I already know that the play is going to be very wrong. I imagine there have to be not-too-dissimilar positions where it's right, though. I'm wondering if there might be some guidelines to tell the difference.
Hi, that´s a good question and hopefully someone with more experience and knowledge of the game will answer it. I played around with the position a bit to see when slotting the back of the prime seems to be important. The first idea was that the 15 shots (11 direct 6´s, 51 and 53) could be the main reason that the play is not an option. So i put the checker from the 3 to the 2 point.
White - Pips 152. Match Score 4/7
Black - Pips 170. Match Score 0/7
Black to Play 4-1
Created with
www.BGdiagram.com
I would be quite happy with just -0,0183 equity loss
, but slotting the opponents bar is still better...
to play 41
1. Rolloutą 23/18 eq:+0,3136
Player: 53,60% (G:14,85% B:0,68%)
Opponent: 46,40% (G:17,93% B:2,76%)
Confidence: ±0,0144 (+0,2992..+0,3280) - [95,4%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
2. Rolloutą 24/23 13/9 eq:+0,2953 (-0,0183)
Player: 52,94% (G:15,52% B:0,79%)
Opponent: 47,06% (G:19,03% B:3,08%)
Confidence: ±0,0156 (+0,2798..+0,3109) - [4,6%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds
What happens, if my opponent also has a 4-point prime?
White - Pips 149. Match Score 4/7
Black - Pips 170. Match Score 0/7
Black to Play 4-1
Created with
www.BGdiagram.com
to play 41
1. Rolloutą 23/22 13/9 eq:-0,1891
Player: 41,88% (G:10,31% B:0,53%)
Opponent: 58,12% (G:25,76% B:5,59%)
Confidence: ±0,0168 (-0,2058..-0,1723) - [82,1%]
Duration: 1 minute 53 seconds
2. Rolloutą 24/23 13/9 eq:-0,2001 (-0,0110)
Player: 40,82% (G:10,72% B:0,57%)
Opponent: 59,18% (G:24,71% B:3,83%)
Confidence: ±0,0155 (-0,2156..-0,1846) - [16,9%]
Duration: 2 minutes 01 second
3. Rolloutą 8/3* eq:-0,2156 (-0,0265)
Player: 40,54% (G:10,85% B:0,50%)
Opponent: 59,46% (G:25,10% B:3,95%)
Confidence: ±0,0156 (-0,2312..-0,2000) - [0,5%]
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
ą 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 2-ply, cube decisions: 3-ply Red
Ok, now it is better to slot the back of the prime, but i wouldn´t go that far to say that it does only matter in prime vs prime situations. I think it also depends on how important it is to extend the prime right now and how likely it is to extent the prime without slotting. Long story short - it depends.... Just kidding.
Well, XG says that my overall level is 11,49 - so i wouldn´t bet a house on my answer, but i would certainly bet my pants on it, since it´s always funny to see a guy playing backgammon without
Quote:
Originally Posted by cboevey
It depends on the position. But generally yes. Firstly, what is my game plan? How am I going to win? (e.g. I'm winning the race, so race and don't get into a blot hitting contest; I'm losing the race so I need to hit a blot; I've got a chance of priming a few men, I'm going to take some risk to extend my prime; If only I can escape the other back man, I'm a big favourite to get them home safely, so I'm going to run him now and hope he misses.
Sometimes the dice don't cooperative with your objectives and you are forced to make the least worst play. Other times you may be faced with a choice of good plays, but wouldn't understand which one is better.
Thanks, i´ll give it a go. I still make blunders because i either missed a play or chose the wrong game plan. It seems like that i almost stop thinking when i see the first "good looking" play.