Problem of the Week #54: March 14


Cash game, Center cube.




Should Black double? If he does, should White take, drop, or beaver?


Note: All ‘cash game’ problems assume the Jacoby Rule is in effect. That is, you can’t win a gammon unless the cube has been turned.

It's def a double imo, but the take/drop question is much harder. My first instinct was to drop with the three point board and shots at the 16 point - two in the sky here is a complete disaster. Saying that, I think I give in way too easily in these spots, so I'm prob off. Whichever it is I think its extremely close.

Double/drop.

First, I'm really curious to know how Black managed to lose his 6-pt. Big double (almost) forced move? Blitz possibility?

Now, about the problem. Black is leading by 7 (146-153) before the roll, which isn't significant right now. Yes he has a stronger board, but right now, even if he manages to make the bar point, the 4 and 6 pts are still open. Black also has good chances of making an advanced anchor which, combined with a strong board, could allow some extra risks in his next moves. Despite the small lead, Black has 3 men back to 1 for White.

On the other hand, White can't use a big double to escape. The farther he could go is on the 11-pt, but he would then be welcomed by a triple shot. So even with only one man back, escaping it is tougher than it looks like. But does Black has enough ammunition to carry out a blitz when White comes out from the bar? Without breaking the midpoint, I doubt it. But wait, we're not done because White has a vulnerable blot on the 16-pt that is in direct range of 2 black checkers.

Ok, so despite the 4 and 6 pts open, Black has a double. And since Black has the stronger board and some immediate threats (with decent gammon chances), I'd say it's a pass for White. Funny, because at first sight I was leaning onto a No double/Take (or even beaver) because of the 6-pt open and the 3 men back. But 1 White man on the bar + a double shot for Black now seems too strong.

Double / Drop.

Grunch: Double/Drop.

Double is automatic of course, since we're better and we have to turn on our gammons. I'm dropping, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a take be right. Black doesn't have the best points, the race is still close, and there are going to be lots of blots sitting around if the blitz doesn't work. This is the kind of mess where I don't know how to evaluate the relative issues at all (blitz starting with bad points vs. a lot of blots).

Double/Drop

I think this is a pretty easy take and a small double. Having a third checker back really hurts blacks chances of completing the blitz, and when the blitz fails blacks game is usually a mess.

Not a bad assumption. But if Black hits (virtually escaping a back checker at the same time), couldn't White be in trouble? Since he has no board, Black should be able to escape the remaining 2 back men quite easily. Quickly enough to carry out a blitz though? Good question.

Really interesting position by the way.

Double/drop. Not really much difference between 6 and 5 point here. Extra man back not enough to make it a take with vulnerable blot.

My comment regarding having three men back wasn't so much because of the problems escaping them, but more about having one less checker near the zone.

Anyway, I got impatient, and have already rolled it out, so I won't say much more .

I would guess, that blacks last move was 24/22 6/5*(2)

Makes sense.

Looks like black has a clear double. His position is still not so strong but has the roll and white is on the bar. This position could easily turn into a gammon.
From white's perspective, all he has to do is escape that checker and chances are about even. It looks like he should take even though he knows he'll get gammoned at least part of the time.

Answer - Double/Take

double.

we have so many good rolls here. i count 25 rolls that hit whites blot and 3 rolls that make our 6.

white's structure is so bad here, i think this has got to be a drop.

In Problem 54, Black can hit with twenty-five shots: direct fours and sixes, as well as indirect fours, sixes and eights (22, 51, 53). In addition, Black can make an inner-board point with ten rolls (11, 21, 22, 34, 44, 56, 66). The doublets 22 and 44 are jokers, allowing him to do both. Things don't look very good for White. The gammon threat is real, and even when he enters, White has few immediate chances to make an anchor. Black has good double.

He really has no choice. Black must double to activate his gammon chances.

The decision to take or drop is much harder. It will be several turns before Black can bring his attack home. With only three checkers in the zone, Black cannot close White out before bringing down more wood from the midpoint. His attack could easily stall, and in a few turns, Black might find himself stranded in White's home board without any outfield points to support him.

Still, White should not be anxious to take. Seven times in ten, he will be facing a three-point board, with two checkers in the air. The other three times, he'll have only one man up, but might find Black has made a fourth inner-board point. Reluctantly -- or otherwise -- White should pass.

My solution: Double/pass

For the Record
I am so often wrong that I like to post my record in these messages. It's kind of a truth-in-advertising thing. I have been answering these problems without the use of a bot, and before checking the excellent solutions of others, since Problem 28. Including the 39a tossup, my record at this writing is 56% correct.
19 Correct: 28a, 29, 30, 32, 35, 36, 38, 39a, 39b, 42b, 43, 44, 45, 47, 48a, 48b, 50, 52b, 53. 15 Incorrect: 28b, 31, 33a, 33b, 34, 37, 40a, 40b, 41, 42a, 46, 48c, 49, 51, 52a.

No doubt whatsoever about doubling here, since the gammon pressure is so substantial. Some opponents don't know how to play blitzes, and won't continue to hit inside. Those are the opponents you consider taking against. I would pass like a shot if I thought my opponent was technically accurate in checker play.

This problem struck me as quite opponent dependent regardless of the exact equities. If I was playing someone very bad then a take might be in order, but I certainly can't ever see how a player of my own poor standard should ever take here against someone good - is this correct?

Good players will maximize their doubled gammon chances in games like this, because that's what produces the long term profit. You should weigh this even if you are a good player yourself, since there may be no rolls at all for the rest of this game in which you have any decisions.

If you do take, you won't be at a STRATEGIC disadvantage for awhile, since anchoring is the obvious priority.

I think its a double, because of the 25 hits and the throw 2/1 making the 6-point.

The only argument for a take here would be that white can enter and escape via the 6-point. This argument however isn't that strong here, the next move black will probably get a 4th man in the zone and any entry on the 6-point will be the most probable to be losely hit, and will be covered probably one of the first moves without a return hit.

So its a pass. In the case it wasn't a Jacoby rule game i doubted if it was TGTD or DP, i think also then it is a DP, because of the rather good chance that white will anchor on one of the lower points.

Based on my reference positions on cubes after 55 in the opening, this looks like a clear double and a fair take. Give the opponent any point and it's no double or close to it, put another checker back and it's approaching a drop.