Code:
1. 9/4 7/4 Eq.: -0,425
0,381 0,058 0,002 - 0,619 0,121 0,002 CL -0,301 CF -0,425
2. 14/9 7/4 Eq.: -0,554 ( -0,129)
0,355 0,050 0,002 - 0,645 0,142 0,003 CL -0,383 CF -0,554
You guys are all so very good, that you could come up with an analysis.
Why should black play 9/4 7/4?
White will not hit without being able to cover his 4-point blot or moving that blot to cover his 1-point, that is, when he doesn't throw a 2 or 3, with 22 and 33 being jokers. (Exceptions: with 44 he will hit and make his 3-point, leaving the 2 blots in his homeboard; with 34 he will avoid to leave too many blots, and 21,26,31 don't hit). That means that in about 2/3 of the cases white will not hit, and black's position will have greatly improved if he throws a 1 or 43. So in about 25% of the cases black will be able to luxuriously wait for white to break up one of his points. If black doesn't throw that 1, white will in most cases have
some 4-point board with a blot, and black being still not without chances. In the 1/3 of the cases that white will hit, mostly there is the blot on white's 1-point and the opportunity of a double shot in the outerboard if black happens to enter. And if black hits, white will be in dire straits.