Code:
1. 13/11 8/7 Eq.: -0,184
0,453 0,167 0,012 - 0,547 0,210 0,019 CL -0,144 CF -0,184
2. 24/23 24/22 Eq.: -0,287 ( -0,104)
0,438 0,173 0,016 - 0,562 0,270 0,016 CL -0,221 CF -0,287
3. 13/10 Eq.: -0,297 ( -0,114)
0,424 0,154 0,012 - 0,576 0,206 0,015 CL -0,207 CF -0,297
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
146 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 770326265 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0,1 (min. 144 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
13/10 doesn't do very much. If white throws a 6, than in his next turn he will have a very strong double.
If we move one of white's four checkers on his 6 point to his 13 point, 24/23 24/22 will be slightly better. This is somewhat surprising as white's chance to make a point on one of those heads is almost 50%, but black's board is still better. So timing is an important consideration here: in the latter white's pipcount will be 14 points more than black's. However, the original 4 points difference is little, and black's hind checkers have somewhat more room than white's. If white throws a 6 he will hit, but no panick, in more than halve of the cases black's chance to hit back from the bar will be 60%.