As Taper_Mike already suggested, white is likely to leave a blot next turn, and even when he has got all his checkers in his board, blue probably is not out of hitting chances. Is it worth to give up the 3-point backgame with a board that looks deplorable? Covering the checker on the 1-point spoils the opportunity to get another checker, so he would like to recycle it. However, with a missing 5 and 6 point blue has no strong case, and on top of that you give white an opportunity to make his 3-point. Creating a 4-point board is much more important.
Code:
1. 9/8 7/1 Eq.: -0,357
0,396 0,032 0,001 - 0,604 0,305 0,016 CL -0,496 CF -0,357
2. 21/15 7/6 Eq.: -0,395 ( -0,038)
0,412 0,029 0,001 - 0,588 0,367 0,027 CL -0,540 CF -0,395
3. 22/16*/15 Eq.: -0,520 ( -0,162)
0,363 0,044 0,001 - 0,637 0,385 0,034 CL -0,647 CF -0,520
Also if he would not be able to cover, he should not hit:
Code:
1. 21/14 Eq.: -0,423
0,407 0,026 0,001 - 0,593 0,379 0,027 CL -0,565 CF -0,423
2. 22/16* 10/9 Eq.: -0,456 ( -0,033)
0,374 0,050 0,001 - 0,626 0,359 0,023 CL -0,584 CF -0,456
Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 10) with var.redn.
145 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 769929098 and quasi-random dice
Stop when std.errs. are small enough: ratio 0,1 (min. 144 games)
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
In the thread
when to hit in a 3-point backgame I will show in which cases hitting is right.
Last edited by yogiman; 01-25-2015 at 01:15 PM.