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Interesting cube decision

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01-03-2016 , 02:06 PM

kingstalker

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 445

Here was I faced with this cube decision:

White - Pips 145. Match Score 5/21

Black - Pips 175. Match Score 0/21
White doubles. Take or Pass?
Created with www.BGdiagram.com

Do I take or pass and what should I be thinking here?

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01-04-2016 , 03:28 AM

bleep69

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 483

I drop. Altogether too much exposure, while white has enough ammo nearby to make our lives miserable. I certainly wouldn't place any reliance on my input though, still learning...

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01-04-2016 , 03:29 PM

peachpie

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 182

Tough one. Gammons are high, but chances are adequate if black can anchor up. Although, white hits on his 5 point with 25 rolls, and then I will wish I passed.

Usually I tend toward wrong takes. This position feels like one where I would take but it would turn out to be wrong. I will try pass this time, but with so much volatility my confidence is not high.

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01-04-2016 , 05:37 PM

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

I would pass this. Both sides have a 3-point board, which is good for the defender. However, a man on the bar, no anchor, and four (!) more blots is just too scary. I give up.

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01-04-2016 , 08:21 PM

kingstalker

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 445

I actually passed this cube. But I was very surprised to see that it is a big take at this match score in XG. A -0.77 error to drop here in fact with XG Roller++. At one ply it is a slight drop in a money game, but with XG roller++ it is also a big drop.

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01-07-2016 , 11:33 AM

peachpie

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 182

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingstalker

Hmm, it seems impossible for a matchscore of 21 away - 16 away to make such a huge difference. Are you sure you have all the numbers correct? Maybe you meant -0.077?

Last edited by peachpie; 01-07-2016 at 11:38 AM.

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01-07-2016 , 11:55 PM

EdwardCollins

enthusiast

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 65

Quote:

Originally Posted by peachpie

Hmm, it seems impossible for a matchscore of 21 away - 16 away to make such a huge difference. Are you sure you have all the numbers correct? Maybe you meant -0.077?

I agree. Passing has got to be just a .07 or .08 error, not .77.

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02-08-2016 , 06:10 AM

Loveheart

newbie

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 31

Guys, it is strange that you do play this game. Is it really interesting for you? It`s easy to count chances, but they will work according to the probability theory only when the rule of large numbers is involved.. But think how much time you need to play to make it live? 1000? 100000?

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02-08-2016 , 09:56 AM

Robertie

old hand

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 1,954

Not so strange, really. I think trying to figure out the right plays is both interesting and fun!

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02-09-2016 , 09:43 AM

#10

peachpie

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2014 Posts: 182

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loveheart

It`s easy to count chances, but they will work according to the probability theory only when the rule of large numbers is involved.. But think how much time you need to play to make it live? 1000? 100000?

But in even one hour of playing backgammon, you will make hundreds of such choices. Already the odds tip to the player who maximizes his chances.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Loveheart

Guys, it is strange that you do play this game. Is it really interesting for you?

2/10, low quality trolling.

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